Wind Once Again Absent When Needed

IWT (industrial wind turbines) once again on August 5th, 2022 acted like the petulant child who will not obey their parents. They did this as Ontario’s demand climbed during the day while they ignored the need to produce additional power. 

Peak Demand for Ontario reached 21,312 MW at hour 16 (hour ending at 4 PM) which made it one of the TOP 10 demand hours so far in 2022. No doubt most Class “A” customers (including public institutions such as universities and hospitals) had fired up their gas generators in anticipation of the peak; both to reduce the strain on the grid but, in particular, to benefit from lower rates in the future.

Those IWT at hour 16 were throwing a temper tantrum and even though they represent about 13% of Ontario’s generating capacity they produced a miserly 180 MWh or 0.8% of Ontario’s demand while operating at only 3.6% of their grid capacity. At that level the approximately 2,700 IWT present in the province may have been consuming more power than they were generating!

The Class A customers using their gas generators at that hour, to go off-grid, will reap the benefits of those IWT fails however as the HOEP (hourly Ontario energy price) peaked at $147.31/MWh.  The substantial cost transfer* to Class B ratepayers will be passed on to small and medium sized companies, residential ratepayers and to all taxpayers in the province.

It is also interesting to note that as demand was climbing in the morning for hours 9 and 10 those IWT generated only 179 MWh while Ontario’s gas plants delivered 8,008 MWh during those two hours. Without the gas generators Ontarians would have experienced blackouts so we should all try to imagine the costs to the economy without those natural gas generators!

Perhaps it’s time to tell the petulant child (IWT generators) their allowance is suspended if they don’t do what they are told to do!

*Class A ratepayers need to only pick 5 peak hours out of the 8,760 hours in a year to receive the cost reduction

Wind Energy once again displays its spasmodic and undependable nature

Another couple of warm (not hot) summer days here in Ontario on July 16th and 17th and guess what?  If you guessed those IWT (industrial wind turbines) were basically unreliable and failed to deliver what the eco-warriors believe in, you were absolutely right!

July 16th

Those IWT on July 16th at Ontario’s peak demand of Hour 17 (hour ending at 5 PM), generated 158 MW or 0.8% of the peak demand of 19,999 MW. That 158 MW represented 3% of their capacity at that hour but much earlier in the day they reached their high for the day at 3 AM when they generated 444 MW or 9% of their capacity.  At 9 AM however when demand is increasing, they once again hit their low point generating only 44 MW or 0.9% of their capacity. In total those IWT generated 4,906 MW over the full 24 hours and that represented only about 4.2% of their capacity. 

Fortunately for all of us Ontario’s natural gas plants were available to ramp up at 9 AM and generated 1,309 MW and at the Hour 17 peak for the day generated 4,483 MW.

July 17th

On July 17th the IWT were generating 531 MW at the Ontario peak demand hour which was once again Hour 17 and was 2.6% of the peak which reached 19,925 MW.  Those IWT peak for the day, was Hour 21 at 635 MW or 12.9% of their capacity. Earlier in the day at Hour 9 they generated 118 MW or 2.4% of their capacity

Once again, those natural gas plants came to the rescue generating 4,427 MW at the peak hour, and 1,563 MW at Hour 9 when those IWT were almost absent and because demand was still high at Hour 21 those gas plants generated 4,081 MW.

The Irony:

While the gas plants were demonstrating their necessity it is ironic as IESO is contemplating adding additional reliable supply via the addition of a 600-megawatt hydrogen-ready power plant project in Sarnia, Jack Gibbons of the OCAA (Ontario Clean Air Alliance) is pushing to stop it!  “The new plant would be designed to run on either 100 per cent natural gas or a blend of up to 65 per cent hydrogen and natural gas, according to a document the company submitted to the federal agency.”  The article in the Sarnia Observer went on to quote Gibbons: “Building a new gas-fired power plant would be moving Ontario in absolutely the wrong direction”. The OCAA’s list of supporters includes none other than George Smitherman, former Minister of Energy under the McGuinty led government and who enacted the GEA (Green Energy Act).  Another supporter is Peter Tabuns, Ontario’s NDP energy critic. It seems obvious the same individuals who caused Ontario’s electricity prices to spike by well over 100% in the past decade don’t recognize the importance of a reliable and competitively priced electricity supply.

Conclusion

All Ontario residents and businesses should be thankful our natural gas plants are at the ready to ensure we don’t suffer rolling blackouts similar to what is happening in Europe and in US states such as California and Texas who have embraced wind and solar in order to save the planet from the fictitious predictions of the eco-warriors!

Did Anyone Notice Wind Wimped Out Again

Yesterday, July 13, 2022, was one of those; not so hot summer days in most of Ontario so according to IESO (Independent Electricity System of Ontario) peak demand at hour 16 only reached 18,135 MW during a five (5) minute interval.  At that hour those IWT (industrial wind turbines) with a capacity of 4,900 MW were contributing 108 MW or 2.2% of their capacity and 0.6% of demand. Had they been absent they wouldn’t have been missed!

The two generation sources the OCAA (Ontario Clean Air Alliance) insist the government shut down, ie:  Nuclear, generated 9,430 MW and Natural Gas plants generated 4,093 MW at that hour.  Had the latter two generation sources not been operating at that or any other hour Ontario would have experienced wide-spread BLACKOUTS with a negative effect on businesses and our daily activities.

Once again at hour nine (9) as daily demand was increasing on a regular work day, those IWT were generating 36 MW which was probably less than they were using just to keep their lights blinking! 

The foregoing unreliability and intermittency of IWT is not an occurrence for Ontario only as it has been demonstrated around the world where they have been endorsed and promoted by politicians.  On their own, without other generation sources, such as natural gas or coal fired generation backing them up, most of the developed world would find ourselves back in the dark ages.

It seems truly unbelievable the push to go fully “fossil fuel free” has gained so much momentum around the world collectively as one example: the push for EV (electric vehicles) to replace ICE (internal combustion engines) is occurring. 

Plugging those EV in to recharge them without fossil fuels generating electricity is nothing more than a pipedream by the eco-warriors and their obedient and obtuse politicians as recently noted.     

Opinion: The summer wind is Ontario’s fickle energy friend

My latest in the Financial Post is a slightly different version of a recent post which I think you will appreciate.

Find it here:

https://financialpost.com/opinion/opinion-the-summer-wind-is-ontarios-fickle-energy-friend

The Summer Doldrums arrived and wind falls flat

Well, summer has finally arrived and as happens annually, wind falls off with the possible exception of the occasional hurricane’s arrival! 

Once again, wind generations summer fail was evident as on July 7th, 2022 Ontario’s industrial wind turbines (IWT) with a capacity of about 15.6% of total capacity in Ontario was at the bottom of the heap in respect to generation!

As one example Ontario’s peak demand occurred during a five-minute interval at Hour 17 reaching 19,638 MW and the 4,900 MW* capacity of wind generated only 332 MW at that hour representing 6.7% of it’s capacity and 1.7% of demand. To wit:

At peak, generation sources were producing the following:

Nuclear                9,529 MW

Hydro                    5,222 MW

Natural Gas        4,336 MW

IWT                           332 MW

Solar                         207 MW

Biofuel                     115 MW

Total                  19,741 MW

As is obvious from the above the three sources of what are referred to as “new” and renewable (IWT, Solar, Biofuel) energy collectively delivered 654 MW or 3.3% of Ontario demand which clearly suggests without nuclear, hydro or natural gas generation Ontario’s households and businesses would have been living with rolling blackouts at the very least throughout the day.

IESO reported wind’s peak generation occurred at Hour 1 (hour ending at 1 AM) when it produced 462 MW of its capacity (9.4%) and it wasn’t needed as demand at that hour was falling below 13,000 MW. When morning arrived however and demand was increasing at 9 AM those IWT (industrial wind turbines) produced a miserly 57 MW (1.2% of their capacity).

As many Ontarians know IWT under the terms of their contracts have “first-to-the-grid” rights ranking ahead of all other generation sources and if their generation isn’t needed, they are still paid if IESO curtail them. It is worth noting the latter regularly occurs during the Spring and Fall seasons when peak demand is much lower but those Spring and Fall breezes are a part of our normal weather pattern.

 As the Premier Ford led Ontario Government ruling party embark on their second majority governing term we should hope (and pray) he and his minions will actually do something to alleviate the mess in the energy sector created by the Ontario Liberal Party when they ruled the province! 

 Hopefully that is not too much to ask of Premier Ford or to expect during these times of rising inflation caused principally by rising energy costs!

*For some reason five (two are related) of Ontario’s IWT farms are still not yet commissioned even though they have been operating for a few years under contracts signed during the McGuinty/Wynne years. They are: Amherst Island (83 MW capacity), Bow Lake (two with a 58 MW capacity and Henvey Inlet (North & South with a 300 MW capacity).

Summer High Demand and Wind Wimps Out

Summer weather in Ontario finally arrived and June 24th demonstrated how IWT (industrial wind turbines) frequently fall flat during those summer peak demand hours which reached 20,715 MW in hour 19.  During that hour wind produced a total of 291 MW which represented about 0.5% of their rated capacity and 0.01% of peak demand whereas Ontario’s natural gas generators produced 5,236 MW or over 25% of peak demand and just over 58 % of their rated capacity.

For the whole 24 hours IWT generation was a miserly 8,188 MW or 7.1% of total capacity reaching a high of 759 MW at hour 24 and a low of 48 MW at hour 9 demonstrating their intermittency and unreliable nature.

As a result of the IWT failures however the positive fact emerging was the HOEP (hourly Ontario energy price) averaged $71.90 for the full day meaning what we sold to Michigan and NY fetched a higher price than we normally receive.  During the peak hour we sold Michigan 1,116 MW and 485 MW to NY and the HOEP at that hour was $114.03/MWh so it came close to paying for that hour’s imported power of the 1,793 MW we purchased from Quebec.

The foregoing is just more proof that IWT should not benefit from their “first-to-the-grid” rights the McGuinty/Wynne Ontario Liberal Party bestowed on them via their lucrative contracts.

It is also further proof the “net-zero” acclimation signed on at COP -26 by the Federal Government under PM Justin Trudeau is a pipe dream as without the natural gas generation Ontario would have experienced blackouts yesterday.

The time has come for the recently re-elected Ford led provincial government to push back on the Federal commitments of “net-zero” and abandon any plans to add more unreliable IWT generation that will not only harm birds and bats and cause health problems in rural communities but also result in increased electricity prices as well as future blackouts.

Marc Patrone Show on Sauga 960 AM

I had the pleasure of being on Marc’s show today (June 13 2022) where we covered a lot of ground. Our chat included what the newly elected Ford Government could do in respect to wind and solar contracts, New Zealand planning to tax cow burps to get their emissions down, the Line 5 pipeline and Clean Energy Credits in Ontario as well as a touching on a few other topics.

You can listen to the podcast starting at 1:09:20 and ending at 1:25:50. Find it here: https://sauga960am.ca/podcasts/

Net-Zero Looking like a No-Go by 2050 Part 2

Part 1 examined several events related to the global “climate change” push and the damage being caused to livelihoods in the U.S., Europe and Canada.  The news was bleak but a couple of the articles signaled the fallout may be having an effect on how politicians may react to more bad news and that voters may rebel. 

Part 2 will look at other global events that will surely cause more handwringing amongst those politicians!

The transition to green energy and the missing warming

Lets’ start with a recent report from a German Scientist, Fritz Vahrenholt, who describes himself as “a scientific reviewer of the IPCC report (The renewable energy section, not the section on climate science), and says that it was his first view of the report that caused him to become skeptical of climate change.”

The review of his report notes the climb of “CO2 emissions” and their increased air concentration over the past 30 years and the warming over that timeframe.  It then points out that the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) has increased since 1980 but is now weakening suggesting a cooling stage of 20-40 years will occur and added to a weakening solar radiation concludes; “further significant warming beyond 1.5 degrees is unlikely in the next 30 years.”  The review also notes a “halted decline in Artic Sea ice” as noted by “European Copernicus program in March”.  This leads to the conclusion; this is good news and suggests: “Wouldn’t it be time for climate researchers to bring these trends to the attention of politicians and the public? After all, politicians are currently readjusting the priorities of energy supply. While until last year’s price explosion and the aftermath of the Ukraine war it was apparently taken for granted that climate impacts would be the sole determining factor for energy policy, we are all now being made aware of the importance of security of supply and price trends.”  We can only hope the foregoing news is actually brought to the attention of the politicians and they listen rather than always accepting the dire forecasts of the eco-warriors.

Canada’s oil and gas workers don’t need a forced ‘just transition

The captioned headline and the article from May 10th in the Niagara Independent should be a “must read” by every Canadian politician.  The article enunciates the importance of Canada’s oil and gas sector and how the demand for oil and gas not only creates jobs for hundreds of thousands of workers but also generates billions of tax dollars that pay for “roads, schools and hospitals”.  It goes on to note “Global demand for both oil and natural gas is firmly back near pre-pandemic levels and rising, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration” and questions the need for the “Just Transition” pushed by the current Trudeau led government!  The article points out “Canada can be the world’s oil and gas supplier of choice, providing customers reliable, responsible energy that is committed to emissions reduction and environmental excellence.”  The article points out world energy consumption will grow and Canada should be ready to step up to provide it.

It is so far not apparent the current government will back off their “Just Transition” concept but they should note the UK plans to classify “natural gas” as green and drilling for it is “environmentally sustainable” as noted in a post in Part 1 of this series.

India going gangbusters on coal — tosses green rules, & wants to reopen 100 old mines

It is becoming more apparent that while countries like Canada are led by politicians who have subscribed to the UNIPCC’s push to eliminate fossil fuels there are still some politicians around the world who are more concerned with their citizen’s well-being!  This is evident with India who did not step up at COP-26 to demands they should reduce their dependence on fossil fuels and didn’t accede to the wishes of people like Mark Carney. A recent article noted “India needs a billion tons of coal a year, and digs up about 770 million tons. Suddenly the plan is to increase that to 1.2 billion tons “in the next two years” and if that means opening 100 old mines and throwing away the green tape, so be it.” India depends on fossil fuels for 70% of their power generation and recently experienced increased demand due to the end of Covid restrictions and hot temperatures causing power demand to rise resulting in power outages. Increasing coal mining will allow them to reboot those coal plants that have experienced a shortage of fuel.

It is good to see some politicians around the world feel their citizens deserve reliable power and are not caught up in what the unelected Mark Carney’s or Bloomberg’s of the world tell them to do.       

US to Ease Sanctions on Venezuela, Enabling Cargoes to Europe  

As a Canadian it seemed very strange that the U.S. Government under President Biden recently decided to ease sanctions on Venezuela allowing them to ship oil to Europe and perhaps even the USA based on an article in the Financial Post last week.  Is this the same President who cancelled the Keystone pipeline during his first day in office that would have carried Canadian crude oil to the US?  The article suggests Venezuela oil may even be allowed to go to the US; “While Chevron currently isn’t allowed to drill for or export oil from Venezuela, the resumption of talks with state-owned PDVSA paves the way for the San Ramon, California-based company to obtain a new license allowing it to resume operations. It also signals that Venezuelan oil may be coming to the U.S., one person said.

We should assume our Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau didn’t jump on that news and call Biden to get him to reverse his decision to allow the Keystone pipeline. Trudeau and his minions like the Minister of Environment and Climate Change, Steven Guilbeault, are determined to stop all Canadian fossil fuel from being extracted and sold around the globe.

Huge fire erupts at bus garage with vehicles alight and reports of an ‘explosion’

A bus garage hosting TfL (Transport for London) electric double decker buses erupted in flames yesterday and included an explosion which can be seen on a video.  The cause of the fire is under investigation but as a result TfL has removed 108 electric London buses from service due to the concern it could be an issue with the battery.  There have been similar incidences elsewhere with another one having recently occurred in Paris, France near the end of April and their transit authority suspended the use of 149 electric buses. Apparently this was the second one occurring as another electric bus had caught fire earlier in April. 

We have heard from the elites of the world as well as our politicians that we should stop consuming fossil fuels and use public transit but hopefully this isn’t what they had in mind but based on the travelling habits of our PM, Trudeau perhaps it is as he never takes public transit?

Conclusion

The developed world’s politicians seem to have embraced the dire and criticized reports from the UNIPCC along with the hues and cries from the many unqualified ENGO (environmental non-government organizations).  Couple that with the further embrace of those IPCC reports by the main stream media and it sure appears “actual science” is ignored! 

Perhaps some of these recent events will light up the minds of the reporter’s aka journalists and the general public will get the truth instead of the “disinformation” we are being fed!

Net-Zero Looking like a No-Go by 2050 PART 1

The past several days has made it look like there isn’t “a hope in heaven or hell” to meet the commitments to reach net-zero by 2050. The promises made at COP-26 will be not be met, unless mankind is back living in caves by that date!  The following highlights several happenings impacting the impossible dreams of our elected leaders. Here are a just few that will also make eco-warriors upset!

Creaky U.S. power grid threaten progress on renewables, EVs

The captioned was labelled as a Reuters Special Report posted several days ago suggesting grid failures are becoming a big problem in the U.S. and caused by “climate change” bringing nasty things like; wildfires in California, hurricanes in the Gulf Coast, Midwest heat waves and a Texas deep freeze.  The author goes so far as to claim; “the seven regional gid operators in the United States are underestimating the growing threat of severe weather caused by climate change” claiming he checked data going back to the 1970s! Had he bothered to go back a little further he may have found heat waves, hurricanes, wildfires and deep freezes are not a new phenomenon that has only occurred during the past 50 years.  He did rightly note the “inherent unreliability” of wind and solar “exacerbates the network challenges” and requires grid expansion to get their generation to where they are needed!  The article goes on to cite the increasing demand for electricity that will be caused by all those EV (electric vehicles) charging their batteries but that means a huge increase in spending on the grid!  He cites John Kerry, U.S. Special Envoy who stated: “We can send a rover to Mars, but we can’t send an electron to California from New York.” My guess is if Kerry had investigated, he would find out New York has no spare electrons to send anywhere and moving that “electron” across the county would cost more than sending that rover to Mars!

A summer of Blackouts

Another recent article related to the U.S. in the City Journal (CJ) co-authored by the editor and a “Fellow” at the Manhattan Institute took a different tact. The article noted “rolling blackouts” will be caused by; “the closure of some coal and nuclear plants, and the unreliability of renewables like wind and solar”.  The article further states “the unreliability of renewables like wind and solar” reduced energy surpluses. The article goes on stating; “That’s left some places with little margin for error during peak usage times in mid-summer—potentially prompting the kind of blackouts California saw last year. The warnings have spurred calls to slow down climate-change-driven efforts to retire nuclear and fossil-fuel generating plants.“ The authors of this article make a more logical argument than the Reuters article as it cites immediate problems presumably inferring building transmission systems to carry an electron from NY to California is not the answer noting: “the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), which coordinates and oversees the power grid for 15 midwestern and southern states serving more than 40 million people, has noted that the closing of plants representing significant sources of energy had accelerated a shortfall in power reserves, potentially with dire consequences.”  The article goes on to note upcoming problems in several of those midwestern states including Illinois, New Mexico, Utah and Colorado, all of whom, forecast power shortfalls and corresponding blackouts during peak demand hours principally due to plant closures and intermittent unreliable wind and solar.  The article also mentions the drought in California which will reduce hydro generation and suggest that, in itself, may well cause blackouts similar to those experienced last year.

Bundesbank warns Russian gas embargo would cost Germany 5 per cent in lost output

The Russian Ukraine war has exacerbated the global efforts to meet those COP-26 targets as the European Union has moved to stop purchasing Russian oil, natural gas and coal. Germany could see one of the largest impacts as they had become overly dependent on the supply of those fuels from Russia. Recently Bundesbank (Germany’s central bank) warned the embargo could knock 5% (US$195 billion) off of Germany’s GDP effectively creating a recession.  At the same time Germany has reactivated many of their old coal plants to ensure electricity supply certainty.  The latter will not ensure they avoid the falling GDP forecast from Bundesbank nor will it help Germany and the EU reach their “net-zero” emission targets as they will be replacing gas fired plants with coal which is much more emissions intensive. It should also be remembered by all, that Germany had not only closed their coal fired electricity plants but had also phased out their nuclear plants in favour of intermittent and unreliable wind and solar generation.

Kwarteng to classify natural gas as ‘green’ investment to support North Sea

Kwasi Kwarteng is the UK’s Business Secretary under Prime Minister Boris Johnson. One month ago he was quoted stating: “Net zero is the solution to the global gas crisis, not the cause. Expensive gas is the problem – cheap, clean, homegrown energy is the solution,”! The quote was from a speech he delivered at the Harvard Kennedy School.  Kwarteng is now planning on classifying “natural gas” as green and drilling for it in the North Sea as “environmentally sustainable”.  Pretty sure the “eco-warriors” around the world must be very upset about declaring “natural gas” as green and drilling for more is “environmentally sustainable”!

Not to worry about the above though, as right here in Ontario the OCAA (Ontario Clean Air Alliance) got a much different message recently.  The OCAA paid close attention to a recent debate amongst the leaders of four (New Blue Ontario Party and the Ontario Party were excluded) of the Provincial Parties invited to debate and the OCAA were delighted when they heard Doug Ford declare he “will not be happy until Ontario achieves a 100%  zero-carbon electricity grid”!  We should be pretty sure the Liberals, NDP and Green Party Leaders are fully on-board with Ford’s “happy” target!

What the foregoing suggests is that it doesn’t matter which side of the ocean you live on; politicians haven’t got a clue as to what the truth is!  Their preferences are driven by what they perceive voters’ favour and apparently, they haven’t a clue if “climate change” aka “global warming” is fact or fiction or what mankind’s influence on the climate actually is.

Stay tuned for Part 2 in this series!

Ontario’s Industrial Wind Turbines Fall Flat When Actually Needed

According to IESO data, Hour 19 on May 14th was Ontario’s peak demand hour reaching a high of 17,758 MW and once again those IWT were missing.  At that hour they generated a miserly 335 MW or 1.8% of demand while representing almost 16% of total capacity.  It should be noted they also have “first-to-the-grid” rights meaning they rank ahead of all other generation due to their contracts with the province.  

At hour one (hour ending at 1 AM) when demand is amongst the lowest in any day and declining, those IWT were generating 1751 MW or almost 39% of their capacity with demand under 13,000 MW ie: less than the combined capacity (14,814 MW)  of nuclear (even without the 3,144 MW of Bruce shut for their planned Vacuum Building Outage) and hydro . 

Generating excess power when unneeded always reflects itself by causing the market price ie; the HOEP (hourly Ontario energy price) to be low when IESO sell it off to our neighbours in Michigan, NY and Quebec. At hour one the HOEP averaged $13.31/MWh (1.3 cents/kWh) whereas at hour 19 it averaged $78.66/MWh. The foregoing is a reflection of how IWT generation’s intermittent and unreliable nature has caused the price of electricity in Ontario and around the world to increase to unaffordable levels.

It is worth noting at Hour 1 Ontario’s natural gas plants were generating 127 MW and in Hour 19 generated 3,477 MW disclosing their reliability.

The facts emphasized above should be ones the OCAA should disclose to the 32 municipalities throughout the province who have told the Ontario Ministry of Energy to shut down all gas plants by 2030. The OCAA has also pushed for the closure of all our nuclear plants suggesting Quebec would supply us with cheap hydro. That claim is an illusion by the OCAA as Quebec doesn’t have the power, we would need to replace what nuclear and gas provide! 

We Ontarians and those inept municipal politicians should be thankful we have those natural gas and nuclear plants or we all would experience continuing backouts!

Pretty sure we all appreciate; lights on to lights off!