Letter to Office of the Information Commissioner Written by Pav Penna

Subject: Improper use of “Cabinet confidences” to reject a valid complaint.

30 Victoria Street                                                                                                                                   Gatineau, Quebec K1A 1H3

Dear Commissioner,

This is a complaint regarding the unresponsive answer to my earlier complaint, dated June 19, 2022 –copy attached. Under the Access to Information Act, I asked the Department of Finance (‘FIN’) to provide information sources for the following paragraph in the Federal Budget, published April 7, 2022:

“Canada is already experiencing an increase in heat waves, wildfires, and heavy storms. These impacts—and the economic and health repercussions that come with them—will continue to accelerate if we do not act now.”

On Feb. 24th, 2023, I received the following response:

“Hello Paavo,

You will find attached the response letter to your request, as well as a Request Report. As per the Report, pages 1-275 are excluded from the Access to Information Act, as these documents consists of Cabinet Confidences. The portion that is Public-Granted contains two different reports that are publicly available, which you can find at the following links:

Under Water: The Costs of Climate Change for Canada’s Infrastructure (represents pages 276-368)

Canada’s Changing Climate Report (represents pages 369-812)

Hoping you have a great weekend.

Kind regards,

Mihael Dopudj

Department of Finance Canada / Government of Canada”

This response is unsatisfactory and incomplete for the following reasons:

* FIN failed to produce any specific scientific evidence to support its claims.

* Instead, FIN’s response references “Under Water: The Costs of Climate Change for Canada’s   Infrastructure.” This is a speculative document about future trends, irrelevant to a complaint about events “Canada is (according to FIN) already experiencing.”

* Also, FIN misinterprets the “Canada’s Changing Climate Report” (‘CCCR’). In fact, this report clearly supports my complaint on the topics of heat waves and heavy storms.

* Although referenced in my complaint, FIN simply ignored data from the “Canadian National Fire Data Base” showing a decline in the frequency of wildfires and the total area burned.

* The complaint can be fully addressed by scientific evidence in the public domain – FIN’s claim of “Cabinet Confidentiality” does not apply.

Have heat waves in Canada increased? No:

According to Environment and Climate Change Canada, maximum temperatures in the 1930’s were higher than recently. A Vincent et al paper published on October 26, 2018 is cited in the CCCR. Referring to maximum annual temperatures (‘tmax’), the paper states: “The summer 95th percentile of tmax (Fig.6a, top right panel) indicates a slight decrease from the 1930s to the 1970s, which can be attributed to the very hot daytime temperatures observed in the Prairies in the 1930s and 1940s (Bonsal et al.,Citation2001).” (My bold).

“Heat waves” are not specifically addressed in the CCCR which deliberately downplays the higher maximum temperatures in the 1930’s – see page 141: “The annual highest daily maximum temperature, averaged across the country, increased by 0.61ºC between 1948 and 2016.” (My bold) Most media reports fail to note the 1948 date which the CCCR uses to deceptively claim that extreme temperatures have risen due to climate change1 . Showing heat waves of the 1930’s would spoil the alarmist narrative.

In contrast, the U.S. EPA has published specific long-term information about “heat waves.” Canadian trends are similar – the extreme heat waves of the 1930’s did not stop at the 49^th parallel!

1 It is generally agreed that climate trend comparisons should be done with the longest period of available data. ECCC violated this rule. They have extensive temperature data for Southern Canada dating back to circa 1900.

Warm spells: P. 191https://science2017.globalchange.gov/downloads/CSSR2017_FullReport.pdf

Changes in warm extremes are more nuanced than changes in cold extremes. For instance, the warmest daily temperature of the year increased in some parts of the West over the past century (Figure 6.3), but there were decreases in almost all locations east of the Rocky Mountains. In fact, all eastern regions experienced a net decrease (Table 6.2), most notably the Midwest (about 2.2°F [1.2°C]) and the Southeast (roughly 1.5°F [0.8°C]). The decreases in the eastern half of Nation, particularly in the Great Plains, are mainly tied to the unprecedented summer heat of the 1930s Dust Bowl era, which was exacerbated by land-surface feedbacks driven by springtime precipitation deficits and land mismanagement.

Have wildfires in Canada increased? No:

The Canadian National Fire Data Base directly contradicts the Department of Finance claim about increasing wildfires. Both the frequency of wildfires and the area burned have declined since 1980. The declining linear trend in area burned is -2510 hectares per year.

Have heavy storms in Canada increased? No:

The CCCR citesVincent et al 2018 -heavy storm events have not increased.

“While significant increasing trends in the annual highest 1-day rainfall, 1-day snowfall, and 1-day precipitation can be found at some isolated stations, the spatial distribution of these stations does not form a spatial clustering pattern and the percentage of stations showing significant trends is not larger than would be expected by chance. It is concluded that there is no evidence of significant change in this type of extreme precipitation for Canada as a whole.” (My bold)

Economic and health repercussions associated with heat waves, wildfires, and heavy storms:

The fact that there have been no increases in heat waves, wildfires and heavy storms renders the discussion of economic and health repercussions of these adverse events moot.

Summary:

In responding to my complaint, FIN did not provide specific credible sources for evidence to support a claim that Canada has experienced increases in heat waves, wildfires and heavy storms due to climate change. Whether or not increases have happened can easily be ascertained by examining scientific evidence in the public domain. There is no justification for FIN’s appeal to Cabinet Confidentiality.

I respectfully resubmit my complaint.

Pav Penna, February 28, 2023