If BESS Couldn’t Recharge-Here Come Rolling Blackouts

Should one venture out into the “charitable” world of those who profess to be knowledgeable (due to their affiliation with a university) how wind, solar and battery storage collectively will not only be cheap but will also reduce emissions while keeping the lights on you may be shocked! One such charity is Clean Energy Canada which is within the Morris J. Wosk Centre for Dialogue at Simon Fraser University!

The above charity issued an “error filled” 25 page report over a year ago focused on Alberta and Ontario and labelling it “A Renewables Powerhouse“ and sub labelling it: “New Research finds that wind and solar power with battery power is set to produce cheaper electricity than natural gas in Alberta and Ontario”.

 The “research” report referenced was commissioned to be prepared by “Dunsky Energy NB: and Climate Advisors “to develop and apply a method to translate the existing resource cost forecasts for key renewable electricity resources into rigorous cost estimates for new solar, onshore wind, and four-hour and eight-hour energy storage projects in Alberta and Ontario over the next decade.”

It is worth noting Simon Fraser University reportedly received $329.9 million (36.3%) of their gross revenue in their latest CRA charitable filing from the provincial and federal governments! Based on the report they commissioned we taxpayers should all wonder was our contribution well spent?

How Would Ontario Cope without natural gas plants:

Two plus days in Ontario suggest our tax dollars were simply another waste in respect to the foregoing referenced report. The below screenshot taken from IESO illustrates how wind and solar have performed from June 17^th through to part of June 22^nd! Wind generation is reflected in the green colour and solar is the yellow. It is obvious wind generation barely showed up either on the 20^th or the 21^st and is absent in the early hours of the 22^nd but we will confine our look to just the 20^th and 21^st to demonstrate how much BESS (battery energy storage system) would be needed over those two days.

June 20^th was a very warm day for most of Ontario and what frequently happens on those warm summer days is wind levels are low, similar to a doldrum when wind is scarce.  As  a result those IWT (industrial wind turbines) scattered throughout the province were able to only deliver a miserly 9,058 MWh over the full 24 hours of the day! At their lowest hour they only generated 37 MWh which was 0.8% of their capacity. Over the full day they operated at 7.7% of capacity and at peak demand, Hour 16, delivered 295 MW (6% of their capacity and 1.3% of demand). Peak demand reached 22,486 MW and is now listed as the third highest demand hour in the current year. NBB:

While those IWT were basically idle, natural gas plants were called on and over the full day generated 103,668 MWh ensuring Ontario’s businesses could continue to operate and households could utilize their air conditioners. At the peak hour they generated 4,584 MWh or 20.4% of peak demand. Ontario was also importing power from Quebec, NY and even some from Michigan during the higher demand hours (hours 8 to 22)

June 21^st was cooler, so demand dropped with peak demand at Hour 17 of 20,942 MW or 1,544 MW less than the prior day, but those IWT were still basically idle generating only 3,213 MWh (2.7% of their capacity) and at Hour 10 only 31 MWh. We should assume those IWT probably consumed more than they generated during that hour. Due to the drop in demand however, for the full day, Ontario was a net exporter but was still importing power from Quebec. 

The natural gas plants stepped up once again generating 108,290 MWh or about what 3.6 million average Ontario households would consume daily.  At the peak hour those natural gas plants delivered 5,397 MW or 25.8% of peak demand.

BESS needed to replace Natural Gas

Looking at the above two days we should wonder how much BESS supply would have been required to keep the lights on and businesses operating if eco-warriors such as the Ontario Clean Air Alliance gets their way, and the politicians agree to shut down those natural gas plants? Based on the 211,958 MWh Ontario’s natural gas plants generated it is a simple task as the BESS units are purported to supply their rated capacity four (4) times before needing to be recharged so simply dividing those MWh by four tells us we would need about 53,000 MW of BESS capacity which is more then 25 times what has been contracted for by IESO at this point!

Would that 53,000 MW of BESS be enough? A quick look at the IESO data for the first nine hours of June 22^nd suggests it wouldn’t be! The quick look indicated those IWT had only generated 621 MW in the first nine hours whereas those natural gas plants had delivered 21,300 MW so that would increase the need for another 5,500 MW of BESS capacity!

Let’s round the above to the need for 60,000 MW of BESS capacity and estimate their costs based on IESO’s recent agreement to contract for 2,034 MW at a cost of $672.34 X 250 annual business days. So the math for 60,000 MW would be a cost close to $10 billion annually or over $200 billion for 20-year contracts. After the 20 years have gone by, those 60,000 batteries (current BESS units are 1 MW/battery) would have reached their end of life and would need to be disposed of. Surely the politicians and bureaucrats have a plan for that too!

Sarcasm fully intended!

Conclusion

Once those BESS units have disbursed their four hours of storage, we should all wonder, how and what will recharge them should the doldrums last for more then two days?  My personal forecast is,  rolling blackouts are on the way and don’t you dare charge your EV or turn on your heat pump!

NB: Dunsky Electric’s “about” section on their website states; “Exclusively dedicated to accelerating the clean energy transition”! Additionally their founder, Philippe Dunsky, served as Council Chair of the advisory committee that recently released the 110 page report “Powering Canada: A blueprint for Success” which seeks an end to the use of fossil fuels to generate electricity.

NBB: IESO’s Year in Review for 2023 note IWT represent 13% of Ontario’s overall generation capacity and have “first-to-the-grid” rights accorded to the owners as it is embedded in their contracts!