Wow, May 7th came and went and no blackouts throughout the province were in evidence. We should all be thankful that as is generally the case in the Spring and Fall, electricity demand in Ontario is in the lower demand level for the year ranging from only 12,000 MW in the night reaching a high in the 16,000 MW range at our peak hour.
The summer highs reaching 22,000 MW are a month or so away, so it is a bit worrisome that at the present time 60.5% (7,950 MW) of Ontario’s nuclear capacity is out for refurbishment or VBO (vacuum building outage) reasons! Nevertheless we once again survived the day! We survived the day as both hydro and natural gas generation stepped up to ensure the lights stayed on even though peak demand at hour 20 reached 15,695 MW.
Over the day the existing nuclear capacity of 5,194 MW produced 124,297 MWh and ran at 99.7% of their rated capacity. The strange happening however, was, Ontario’s hydro power for 22 of the 24 hours actually generated more power then nuclear produced and for the full day generated more then nuclear at 132,335 MWh. That hydro generation surely helped to keep the lights on and our businesses operating. To top off what hydro generation provided, our national gas plants, which the OCAA (Ontario Clean Air Alliance), a member of the “Church of the Climate Cult” want shut down; generated 79,438 MWh to ensure we had the required power needed throughout the day ramping up and down as demand fluctuated!
What is amazing about how the day unfolded is that IESO were still busy selling off our surplus generation to Michigan and Quebec with a small amount to New York via our intertie connections. In total our net-exports were 39,107 MWh and at hour 16 with the net sale of 1814 MW the HOEP (hourly price), IESO were paid, was $454.37/MW or 45.4 cents/kWh and it presumably included the 654 MW of IWT (industrial wind turbines) generation it produced at that hour!
Excluding the foregoing hour the average sale price for the day was $32.82/MWh but including it raises the net sale price to $50.39/MWh! What was somewhat unusual is that while Quebec was the principal buyer of the surplus generation throughout much of the day, during hours 17 to 21, Ontario actually were net importers of 1,133 MW from them but perhaps IESO were just ensuring we needed that power to avoid a blackout during those usual higher demand hours!
The foregoing 39,107 MWh (net-exports) sold probably was, principally, a result of those IWT generating 27,540 MWh while operating at 23.4% of their capacity throughout the day. Those IWT have the benefit of “first-to-the-grid” contract rights ($135/MWh) so IESO accepted all of their generation as their sale price exceeded the $15/MWh they could have saved from having them curtail their power.
Conclusion
It seems obvious IESO has logically picked the best time to allow the nuclear plants to conduct their VBO, pinning their hopes on no unusual weather that would drive demand higher than it has been for the past several days.
Let’s all “cross our fingers” in support of their plan but don’t count on either wind or solar generation to step up in the event we get any unusual weather!
The pro-Hamas camp now ensconced at McGill University in Montreal brought back memories!
Those memories were related to how our Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau and his buddy, Gerald Butts became strong friends when they both attended McGill U. as the following picture suggests.
Damage to Ontario
Those of us living in Ontario are paying the price for the time spent by Butts influencing Dalton McGuinty during the days when he was Premier and Butts was his “principal secretary” and “policy guru” as noted in an article in the CBC from December 7, 2016.
The author of the CBC article points out how Butts took credit for the Green Energy Act’s creation which according to his biography on the WWF (World Wildlife Fund) pointed to that claim along with many others. The article went on to note how the GEA “cost Ontario consumers an extra $37 billion between 2006 and 2014, according to an auditor general, and is expected to cost another $133 billion from 2015 to 2032.“ The foregoing represents an average cost of over $6.5 billion annually until those contracts expire and close to what Ontario taxpayers are now absorbing in order to keep electricity rates from increasing even more.
Damage to Canada
As we know, Butts went on to become the “principal secretary” to Prime Minister Trudeau and was successful in “promising to enact carbon pricing regimes (read: tax) on all provinces by 2018 and phasing out coal by 2030“.
As time progressed for Butts as Trudeau’s principal secretary, he ultimately was forced to resign his position; “amid allegations that senior members of the PMO pressured former justice minister Jody Wilson-Raybould to help Quebec-based multinational engineering firm SNC-Lavalin avoid criminal prosecution on bribery and fraud charges in relation to contracts in Libya“ as noted in another CBC article from February 18, 2019.
Despite his resignation Butts can once again claim success as the Trudeau led government imposed the “carbon tax” which continues to rise every year until it reaches $170/tonne and is causing energy poverty in every province where it has been enacted!
That “carbon pricing” regime came to pass as there are economists such as Chis Ragan and others who believe taxing something will cause its demise! I authored three articles that tried to outline exactly what the “Ecofiscal Commission” was and the individuals involved in justifying their recommendations.
One can liken it to how they believe taxing alcohol and smoking reduced their consumption due to their associated health issues so presumably they believed reducing CO 2 emissions will be beneficial by taxing our energy needs when produced from fossil fuels!
They failed to look at the negative affects of eliminating the ability of those fossil fuels to provide the electricity and heat to keep us warm during our winters, cool in the summer or via their other many contributions such as keeping us healthy with medical supplies and with fertilizers for our farmers to grow food!
Eurasia Group
After Butts resigned as the principal secretary to Prime Minister Trudeau, he wound up at Eurasia Group where he now resides as their Vice Chairman and his biography brags extensively about his abilities! Just one example: “As the principal secretary to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau from 2015–2019, Gerald was responsible for providing executive direction on the development, implementation, and communication of the government’s agenda. This work included overseeing economic policy, the negotiation of the Paris climate accord, and the creation of Canada’s first national climate change plan—which included an economy-wide price on carbon.“ Beyond the foregoing it is worth noting that Eurasia Group has successfully obtained over $1 million of Government contracts!
Conclusion
The unelected “principal secretary” to both Ontario Premier, Dalton McGuinty and Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau will cost Ontario taxpayers and ratepayers $170 billion dollars but that pales beside the costs to all Canadian taxpayers and ratepayers under the claimed achievements he cites while the principal secretary to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau!
How can this ever happen in what we claim is a democracy!
Those who receive media output from the OEB (Ontario Energy Board) will have recently received an e-mail notice titled “End of Winter Disconnection Ban”! It informs the reader how to avoid the disconnect by outlining the various programmes that now exist to obtain taxpayer dollars to cover the costs as well as what your local distributor can or cannot do!
We should all assume this happening is merely the “chicken coming home to roost” due to how our energy costs have been climbing steadily due to Federal, Provincial and Municipal governments having gone overboard in an effort to achieve “net-zero” to hinder or stop, what was once called “global warming” but has morphed into “climate change”!
The not-so-subtle warning from the OEB served as an enticement to go back in time to see how things once were It led to IESO’s (Independent Electricity System Operator) website where they have listed TOU (time of use) rates from 2006 through to the most recent price change effective November 1, 2023! Here are the screenshots of the November 1, 2023, and 2006 price ranges. The middle screenshot from May 1, 2018, was when the Ford led Ontario Conservative Party took over from the McGuinty/Wynne Ontario Liberal Party and in the runup to that election they promised to reduce electricity prices!
“Improved supply conditions and lower total demand in 2006 contributed to the lowest annual average weighted price since the market opened in 2002. The average price for 2006 was 4.87 cents per kilowatt hour, down 30 per cent from the previous year.“ IESO went on to note: “Ontario set a new all-time record for electricity demand of 27,005 MW on August 1, 2006. However, despite this record peak, total annual demand for electricity declined to 151 TWh, compared to 157 TWh in 2005.“
It is worth noting that daily peak demand has maintained the record since 2006 and annual demand has not reached 151 TWh since then. Perhaps the climb in the costs of electricity had something to do with that as Ontario’s population back in 2006 was lower as were the number of households which have increased from around 4.6 million to almost 5 million in 2020. We should suspect both households and the population of Ontario are undoubtedly higher today.
Time of Use (TOU) Prices Ahead of Inflation
Should one do the math on inflation rates from 2006 to 2023 we discover they increased in Ontario by 44.1% and 16.9% from 2018 which turns out to be well below the increase in TOU rates for both the McGuinty/Wynne Liberals and the Ford Conservative led governments!
Since 2006 to 2023 Off-peak rates are up by 159%, Mid-peak by 72% and On-peak by 88% so all are well above the 44.1% inflation increase we experienced in those 17 years!
From 2018 to 2023 Off-peak rates are up by 33.8%, Mid-peak by 29.8% and On-peak by 45.4% which again is well above the 16.9% overall increase in inflation rates in the past 5 years!
Should one examine which of the three TOU rates jumped the most since 2006 it is obvious the biggest increase by far was in the “off-peak” rates which co-incidentally is responsible for 60/70% of household demand. Off-peak rates apply over weekends including holidays and also apply from 7 PM in the evening to 7AM in the morning during workdays and as noted during the 2006 to 2023 timeframe those rates increased the most and usually represent over 60% of usage during a normal month.
Conclusion
It is obvious from the above information with the actual facts coming from the OEB and IESO that Ontario’s electricity rates have outstripped inflation by a significant margin since 2006 due to both the Liberal and Conservative led Provincial governments. Both the Liberals and the Conservative governing parties have chosen to allow those rates to continue climbing adding to inflation while layering on rebates for taxpayers to absorb (Ontario’s recent budget allocates $7.3 billion) and adding other programs to help those suffering from “energy poverty”!
While the Ford led government cancelled the GEGEA (Green Energy and Green Economy Act) passed by the McGuinty Government in 2009, the cancellation did absolutely nothing to reduce the cost of electricity to ratepayers who are also taxpayers. Premier Ford and his Minister of Energy continue to push the net-zero concept, presumably in support of the Federal led government, which will continue to increase the costs of what is a basic necessity. With IESO seeking increased generation and storage capacity coupled with nuclear plant refurbishments to meet those “net-zero” targets and achieve full “electrification” it is hard to visualize how they will be able to slow the increasing costs of the electricity sector down.
The recent two days in Ontario brought Spring showers and lots of IWT (industrial wind turbine) generation as the wind was blowing throughout the province. Based on IESO data it also resulted in them apparently curtailing some of its unneeded generation.
On April 22nd IESO forecast those IWT would generate 46,220 MW (39% of capacity) but curtailed 4,464 MW. Then on April 23rd IESO forecast they would generate 91,540 MW (77.8% of capacity) but again curtailed 10,288 MW. Those “first-to-the-grid” contacts resulted in the owners of the IWT receiving $135/MWh for accepted generation and $120/MWh for what was curtailed!
Over the same two days IESO data disclosed Ontario’s net-exports to our neighbours in Quebec, Michigan and New York were 90,293 MW or 73.4% of what they accepted into the grid from IWT generation strongly suggesting it wasn’t needed. IESO sold that power at an average price of $16.83/MWh on the 22nd and $18.83/MWh on the 24th so we ratepayers wound up paying $512.21/MWh or 51.2 cents/kWh for the 32,735 MW that was apparently required in Ontario to keep the grid supplied with what was in demand. The total costs of the IWT generation coupled with the curtailment costs were $18,378,020 and we were paid $1,611,881 for the 90,293 MW they sold over the intertie lines resulting in the foregoing cost of $512.21/MWh for the 32,735 MW used in the Ontario grid and a net cost to ratepayers and taxpayers of $16,767,139!
The owners of the IWT were surely rubbing their hands in glee while Ontario taxpayers were forced to pick up $7.3 billion in costs associated with “Cost-Relief Programs” caused by the intermittent and unreliable supply of electricity from principally those IWT and to a lesser degree solar generation sources!
California
In California a recent article noted “In 2024, residential PV (Photovoltaic) will shift nearly $4 billion onto others’ bills, more than double the 2020 amount.“
What the foregoing statement implies is the plentiful solar panels sitting on residential roofs in California contribute much less towards the “fixed costs” which are detailed as: “vegetation management, grid hardening, distribution line undergrounding, EV charging stations, subsidies for low income customers, energy efficiency programs, and the poles and wires that we all rely on whether we are taking electricity off the grid or putting it onto the grid from our rooftop PV systems.“ The effect is a layering of those costs onto all the other ratepayers without rooftop solar.
To put the foregoing into perspective the article goes on to state: “In 2014, the homes served by these three IOUs (Investor-owned utilities) got less than 2% of their electricity off their roofs. Today they get about 20%. As fewer kWhs are sold from the grid, retail rates must rise even more in order to recover the fixed costs of the system.“ The story goes on to note California’s electricity rates are more than double the national average in the U.S.
The following chart from the article shows the steep climb in rooftop solar in the state:
Another article related to California basically aligns with Ontario’s IWT issues due to lower demand during the Spring noting: “Solar energy waste is most prevalent in the spring when there is less need for heating and cooling. Use is high in the morning and evening but drastically reduces during the day. Therefore, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory found that with a high demand of solar power on an electricity grid, the netload of renewable energy takes on a “U” shape. However, even when demand is low, solar panels continue to absorb energy that goes to waste. In 2022, the state wasted 2.4 million megawatt-hours of electricity, and 95% of that was solar. Throwing away free power raises electricity prices.“
Conclusion
The foregoing actually presents proof that politicians in both California and Ontario who pushed the renewable energy agenda have been responsible for driving up what we all consider a basic necessity of life. They failed to see the future implications of the transition to “renewable energy” in an effort to reputedly save the world from “climate change”!
The time has come for politicians to appreciate their inability to predict the future and stick to managing our bureaucracies in a way that will ensure “energy security” without inflation driven concepts sold to them by the eco-warriors!
April 14th and 15th arrived and as frequently happens in the spring, Ontario’s peak demand was low reaching only 15,757 MW on the 14th and 15,971 MW on the 15th with both occurring at hour 20 (hour ending at 8PM).
While those IWT (industrial wind turbines) were generating energy it wasn’t particularly high; nevertheless, due to low demand, it wasn’t needed but due to their contracts giving them “first to the grid” rights, all of what they generated was accepted. On the 14th they generated 35,168 MW (29.9% of capacity) and on the 15th they produced only 17,690 MW (15% of capacity) but absolutely none of it appeared to be needed based on what IESO were selling off to our neighbours in Michigan, New York and Quebec.
At this particular time a large portion of our nuclear plants are down for refurbishment (about 5,700 MW) with several more of them still in operation scheduled for future refurbishment. In addition to the foregoing a Ministry of Energy press release dated April 16th announced a “plan to refurbish its hydroelectric stations in the Niagara region, including the Sir Adam Beck Complex at Niagara Falls.“ The $1 billion refurbishment will commence in 2025 and is expected to be completed in 15 years and add 50 MW of capacity.
While all those refurbishment projects are happening; IESO’s Pathways to Decarbonization forecasts by 2050, we will have both an incredible amount of nuclear as well as 15,000 MW of hydrogen generation (currently an unproven source of low cost power) as one can see in the following chart. One should also note no natural gas plants will be in existence at that time! The chart also anticipates lots more IWT capacity will be added to the grid! We ratepayers must presume the “Demand Response” capacity will keep the “grid stable” while industrial companies will be severely impacted having to shut down on numerous occasions to contain blackouts!
As and when 2050 arrives we should also anticipate (laughingly) IESO’s plan is those IWT will have reached the stage where they will generate power only when needed unlike the recent two days which demonstrated their intermittent and unreliable nature.
The total generation for both of the two April days was unneeded as IESO were busy exporting the surplus power to our neighbours at an average HOEP price of $19.17/MWh on the 14th and $27.41/MWh on the 15th while they were paid $135/MWh! The net intertie exports (exports minus imports) on the 14th (39,836 MWh) and the 15th (51,925 MWh) both exceeded what those IWT generated meaning it was surplus to Ontario’s demand.
The net result of the foregoing was a cost to us ratepayers and taxpayers of over $6 million for those two days. We should expect that cost will surely rise should the Province of Ontario continue to believe we must “decarbonize” to save the planet from “climate change” resulting in an unreliable grid and further creation of “energy poverty” as all those EV and heat pumps gobble up whatever remaining dependable power is available in the future!
Why isn’t the Ford led provincial government fighting back on the inane push of the Federal led, Trudeau government to continue on the “net-zero” target and recognize what we are attempting in Ontario will not change the climate in any way!
Those IWT in the recent two days, demonstrated their innate ability to generate excess power when it’s unneeded and then to reverse course and be absent when it is needed.
On April 2nd they were humming all day generating 93,012 MWh which was 79.1% of their capacity and IESO were busy selling much of it off to our neighbours in Michigan, Quebec and New York at an average price of $29.27/MWh. In total IESO’s intertie data (net-exports) showed 55,013 MW weren’t required to keep the lights on In Ontario which was 59.1% of IWT generation on that day so we ratepayers and taxpayers in Ontario were forced to eat those costs of excess generation.
On April 3rd those IWT were still humming but most of the humming was in the early morning from 1AM to 7AM when they generated 24,894 MWh or 72.6% of their capacity while IESO sold off (net exports) of 15,184 MWh or 61% of the IWT generation at $29.87/MWh.
Later that day when demand was higher IWT generation fell off and for some reason IESO were busy importing power to keep our lights on! From hour 14 through to and including hour 22 IESO data notes we were net importers of 8,940 MW from Quebec and New York at an average cost of $86.89/MWh and almost three times what we sold off the excess power for earlier in the day. Over those same hours IWT generated 9,834 MWh which was only 22.2% of their capacity.
It’s unclear why IESO went through the import process as both our hydro and natural gas plants show their generation fell over the same period based on IESO data?
Fun Facts
The foregoing reminded yours truly of a fun fact related to the push to achieve that “net-zero” emissions target with IESO telling us in their 2024 Annual Report “full electrification will require the grid to increase “two per cent a year over the coming decades, from 154 TWh in 2025 to 245 TWh by 2050.“ IESO’s Annual Report also includes projections of generation from those IWT for the winter and the summer (30%+ for winter but only 15% for summer) but don’t mention their habit of much higher generation during the Spring and Fall when Ontario’s daily “peak demand” is much lower.
The 154 TWh forecast for 2025 also caught my eye due to a recent examination of IESO’s “Historical Demand” which has data for both the top 20 peak demand hours historically as well as Total Annual Ontario Energy Demand! In reviewing that historical information it became clear Ontario back in 2005 had an annual demand exceeding the 2025 projection and it was 157 TWh! Back then Ontario’s population was approximately 12.6 million versus our 2023 population of 15.6 million. What that means is back in 2005 our annual consumption per individual was 12.5 MWh whereas in 2023 when consumption was 137.1 TWh it drops to 8.8 MWh per individual! That represents a drop of 3.7 MWh per person or 29.6%!
Conclusion
We should rightly assume our drop in average consumption from 2005 had zero effect on the price we pay per kWh. We should suspect the cost per kWh will continue to increase as Ontario adds more renewables such as wind, solar and biomass and expensive storage such as batteries to try and offset the intermittent and unreliable nature of wind and solar. There is also the aspect of other expensive generation sources still in the early development stage that are reputedly “emissions free” power such as “green hydrogen” not to mention the tens of billions they plan to spend on grid expansion!
Yes, sit back and watch your electricity costs rise to the point where it will be “lights out” or starve!
One year after the OPC Party was elected in Ontario Premier Doug Ford told us Ontarians all the promises he made were kept and he did that by issuing a press release telling us all they had done in their first year in office. Looking back, many of those promises they purportedly “kept” were broken and never achieved.
One example really stands out as he said: “we have a reasonable and responsible plan to balance our budget, while protecting core services like healthcare and education.“ Here we are five years later, and the recent budget they just rolled out has our deficits rising and a forecast that the budget will finally be in surplus for the 2026-27 year! We should all wonder; what did he mean by saying they had a “reasonable and responsible plan” if we don’t see it balance unless the party needs to be elected three times before the “balance” appears! Promise Made, Promise Broken! One of the facts in the press release stated: “The government is implementing a plan to achieve a balanced budget by 2023–24.“ Woops, they missed that one by a country mile or two!
What About Electricity Costs?
In the leadup to the 2018 election Ford made lots of promises as to how he would fix the electricity sector and the following screenshot of an e-mail exchange dialogue from Ford with a voter describes his plans as does the “back and forth” of another dialogue with a different voter! Take your pick on what he promised but didn’t deliver!
Ford’s response to a voter
This sentence from the above Ford response to the voter got my attention: “Doug Ford and the Ontario PCs will scrap the Green Energy Act, which saw Ontarians overpay $9.2 billion for contracts that were awarded to Liberal donors.”
Ford’s dialogue and response to another voter
Loved this from Ford’s response: “I’m dead against these turbines” Everyone is for alternative energy so forth and so on, but this is just a big scam.”
Actual Results from another voter
As a matter of curiosity I went back and looked at my March 2018 electricity bill and it was 15.8 cents/kWh all-in after receiving the 8% rebate the Wynne led Government was doling out! I then looked at my March 2024 electricity bill and calculated the all-in rate was 17.8 cents/kWh which is a 12.6% increase since the Ford led government gained power and that was after the 17% rebate they now hand out!
Interestingly the billed cost of the “electricity” portion only; back in March 2018, represented 52.1% of my bill before the rebate whereas the “electricity” portion in the current bill before the rebate represents 47.9% of my bill suggesting actual electricity costs have not risen as much as the “delivery, regulatory charges and taxes” have during that time frame. Using Cold Air’s annual data on generation and total costs one can then calculate about what the total costs were in 2018 versus 2023. So it was the case for all ratepayers in the province the total billed costs would have been approximately $26.6 billion coupled with the other charges on the bill in 2018 and $31.1 billion in 2023 for a growth of $4.5 billion or 16.9% which is in line with inflation over that time frame.
Many will remember before the 2018 election that Premier Wynne had allocated $2.5 billion of electricity costs to taxpayers but the Ford led Government has tripled that as the latest budget forecast of electricity costs assigned to taxpayers allocates spending of over $7.5 billion to help ratepayers pay their bills!
Promises Made, Promises Kept: Na, I think you missed those promised to the two voters!
From the press release referenced in the opening paragraph above the comments about the ”hydro mess” had the following message:
“Cleaned up the hydro mess by overseeing the renewal of Hydro One, including the departure of the previous CEO and Board of Directors, and installing a new Board backed up by real accountability and transparency measures; cancelling and winding down more than 750 unnecessary and expensive renewable energy contracts to save ratepayers $790 million; and repealing the Green Energy Act to stop approvals for wasteful energy projects that would add unnecessary costs to electricity bills, as part of the government’s commitment to lower hydro bills by 12 per cent.“
Conclusion:
The reason the Ontario Liberals then led by Kathleen Wynne became the “minivan” party was all related to the mess made of the “electricity” portfolio by them.
We should wonder if that will happen to the Ford led Ontario PC party? As voters, our problem is no one, so far, from any of the other parties has dared to suggest they will fix the “hydro mess”! It simply appears that the mess will continue as an increasing burden on us taxpayers and ratepayers and to reuse a Ford message from above: “this is just a big scam” as is this one: “Doug Ford and the Ontario PCs will scrap the Green Energy Act, which saw Ontarians overpay $9.2 billion for contracts that were awarded to Liberal donors.”
Now a large portion ($7.5 billion) of that $9.2 billion “scam” has been passed on to taxpayers!
Surely Doug Ford must realize ratepayers in Ontario are also taxpayers and that promise to “lower hydro bills by 12 per cent” has instead increased bills by almost 17%!
Having a look at IESO data in the Spring often brings distressing news and it’s always about the wind blowing and raising electricity costs while those IWT kill the birds and bats, harm aquifers and create that damn infrasound.
Well along came March 26th, 27th and 28th and those spring breezes arrived and Ontario’s 4,900 MW of IWT (industrial wind turbines) were spinning and respectively generated 96,911 MWh on the 26th, (82% of capacity) 65,896 MWh on the 27th (56% of capacity) and finally 43,714 MWh on the 28th (37.2% pf capacity).
It’s worth noting, in the past, IESO’s “Annual Planning Outlook” would forecast those IWT would generate 29/31% of their capacity annually but they would be specific when looking at the summer and winter (Ontario’s two peak demand periods) and would only rate IWT at 15% for the summer and 30% for the winter! IESO’s recently released Annual Planning Outlook no longer does the foregoing and instead it forecasts they will generate .8 GW (gigawatts) in the summer and 1.5 GW in the winter which equates to 16% in the summer and 30% in the winter.
Over the three Spring days noted above, those IWT generated 58.4% of their capacity producing 206,296 MWh without any apparent curtailment!
The question then becomes did we need all that generation or were we exporting it to our neighbours at low prices? As it turns out Peak demand is low most of the time in the Spring and Fall seasons and the above three days were no exception with the highest peak reaching only 17,457 MW at Hour 19 on March 27th so yes, we were exporting a lot of that power to Quebec, Michigan and New York! As it turns out net export sales totaled 100,814 MWh or 48.9% of what they generated!
Over the three days the wholesale HOEP price averaged over $30/MWh coming in respectively at $30.27, $35.35, and $31.01 so IESO recouped a total of $3,145,380 for all of those net-exports.
Now if we agree, excess IWT generation represented ALL of the net-exports or caused other baseload generation (nuclear and hydro) to be exported we can rightly discern their unreliable and intermittent nature should be allocated to what the remaining 105,482 MWh of their generation actually cost us Ontario ratepayers/taxpayers. The 206,296 MWh those IWT generated received $135/MWh which cost us a total of $27,850,000* and granting them all of the revenue from the sale of the 100,815 MWh over those three days at the above sale prices means we earned $3,145.000*. If we then deduct the latter from the full cost of the IWT generation, it means for the 105,482 MWh we Ontarians consumed it cost us $234.20/MWh or 23.4 cents/kWh!
The foregoing is what we Ontario ratepayers have become accustomed to as a result of the GEA (Green Energy Act) and the contracts signed under it. The Ford led Government cancelled the GEA when they gained power but there is something disturbing about their buy-in to “Electrification” as it has seemingly got to the point where IESO suggest we need vast amounts of power to achieve the “political” goals.
One example of those future goals and needs from the “Annual Planning Outlook” is the following sentence referencing our needs from 2029 to 2034: “These needs are expected to be met by new or repowered, non-emitting energy-producing resources (that include but are not exclusive to wind and solar) acquired through future long-term RFPs, as well as the reacquisition of existing facilities through medium-term procurements in accordance with the Resource Adequacy Framework.”
Conclusion
From all appearances the Ford led Ontario Government seems intent on satisfying the wishes of PM Justin Trudeau and his “climate czar” Steven Guilbeault, to drive us all into energy poverty instead of pushing back!
Ontario’s IESO recently released their “2023 Year in Review“ and it confirms some suspicions, including less generation from IWT (industrial wind turbines) and solar despite their contracted “first-to-the-grid” rights.
The biggest surprise is the review revealed a year over year slight drop in Ontario demand from 137.57 TWh in 2022 to 137.1TWh in 2023. The drop happened despite the ongoing efforts to decarbonize our generation with demand reputedly increasing as IESO stated in their recently released; “Annual Planning Outlook” claiming we will see “steady demand growth year over year, with total demand increasing 60 per cent over the next twenty five years.“ Strangely enough, while demand declined by .47 GW (gigawatts) year over year it was reported by Statista that Ontario’s population grew 3% from 16.1 million to 16.6 million in 2023 yet electricity demand fell! Hmm, what do IESO attribute this to?
Well as we have come to expect during these times, IESO blamed it on the weather, stating: “Weather had a significant impact on 2023 demand, as the winter and summer months were milder than normal“and they also blamed it on “economic activity, which was diminished slightly owing to inflationary pressures.“
On the “weather” issue they said nothing about how an El Niño year affects the weather resulting in how “trade winds weaken and the Pacific Ocean tends to release more heat into the atmosphere.“ Despite the foregoing IESO in its recently released “Annual Planning Outlook” prattle on and on about “climate change” and “decarbonization” going as far as to state: “Climate science has demonstrated that the global climate is changing due, in part, to an accumulation of GHG emissions in the atmosphere.“ It seems obvious IESO Staff need to review the recent released Climate the Movie (The Cold Truth) in which prominent scientists debunk the claims of the Church of the Climate Change Cult!
On the “economic activity” issue we should suspect due to many small and medium businesses shuttered (120,000 across Canada) due to the Covid lockdowns that a good percentage of them were Ontario based so that presumably, represented the decline in “economic activity” resulting in diminishing electricity demand in 2023.
Let’s look at a few issues coming out of this “Review”
Peak demand in 2023 reached 23,713 MW on September 5, 2023, and the review gives it a lot of attention but compared to past peaks it pales as the highest summer demand peak hour was back on August 1, 2006, when it reached 27,005 MW. Had they bothered to review their history of the top 20 peak hours they would have noted the September 5, 2023 peak was over 1,600 MW short of number 20 on the “peak” list back on August 12, 2002!
The “Review” also has nuclear capacity showing as 13,144 MW but at no time during the year was it at that level as many of the units were, and still are, shut down for refurbishment. As of today the “grid connected” nuclear capacity is (as of hour 18) shown as 6,561 MW or slightly less than 50% of what IESO claim in their “Review”!
Looking at imports and exports it is interesting to note the former dropped from 7.9 TWh in 2022 to 4.1 TWh in 2023 and interestingly IESO blame it those Quebec wildfires (14 of them were caused by an arsonist now in jail but that’s not mentioned) stating it was one reason Quebec was unable to export hydro. The second reason was apparently “because of hot, dry weather contributing to lower hydroelectric output“. Ontario’s exports were also down by 1 TWh, but no reason is given by IESO.
In respect to the latter perhaps the reason for lower exports was related to those IWT (industrial wind turbines) whose generation fell by 1.6 TW from 2022 as did the grid connected solar which fell by .5 TWh. Ah yes, the vagaries of wind and solar! Despite those drops by wind from 13.8 TWh in 2022 to 12.2 TWh in 2023 and solar, IESO reported exported generation in 2023 was 16 TWh (enough to power 1.8 million average Ontario households) and we sold it for pennies as the average HOEP (the wholesale price) was a miserly 2.99 cents/kWh!
Should one do the math on the foregoing and simply deduct the imports of 4.1 TWh from the exports of 16 TWh it comes to 11.9 TWh or almost exactly what those IWT generated (12.2 TWh) in their unreliable and intermittent way! If we go further and suggest all of those exports were either IWT generation or caused baseload generation to be exported, the cost associated was approximately $1,251 million! The latter is a simple calculation: the 11.9 TWh of net exports caused IESO to manage the grid and they sold it to our neighbours at an average price of $29.9 million/TWh so it would have generated revenue of about $356 million (11.9 TWh X $29.9 million). The cost of that, if it was all IWT generation or caused other generation (baseload) to be exported at $135/MWh, would have been approximately $1,607 million (11.9 TWh X $135/MWh). If one deducts the $356 million earned from the export sale it indicates, we Ontario ratepayers/taxpayers were forced to absorb the above noted $1,251 million in costs representing about $260.00 per Ontario household!
Natural gas plants stepped up
While those IWT and solar panels generated less power in 2023, Ontario’s natural gas plants with their ability to ramp up or down came through when needed and their generation increased from 15.2 TWh in 2022 to 19.1 TWh in 2023 while hydro generation fell slightly by .6 TWh.
Ontario’s Minister of Energy, Todd Smith’s on a Podcast
Interestingly enough, Ontario Energy Minister, Todd Smith was on a podcast February 27, 2024 discussing the Federal CER (Clean Electricity Regulations) created by the Federal Minister of the Environment and Climate Change, Steven Guilbeault and had this to say:
“So when it comes to generating electricity, for the time being, natural gas is going to play a vital role as the insurance policy to keep the lights on. However, as more storage is added to our system and potentially long duration storage, which has the potential ability to dispatch electricity for 10 to 12 hours at a time will be less reliant on our natural gas fleet over time.
For home heating here in Ontario, there’s well over 70% of our homes that rely on natural gas for heat right now. We have several pilot projects that are underway in municipalities across the province to move to a hybrid electric heat pump, which is being well received in certain communities. But if we were to move, let’s say to all electricity for home heating, we would have to build several more Bruce Powers to make sure that we have the electricity that we need. And our system operator told us that in our pathways to decarbonization report that I asked them to produce for us on what it would take to get to net zero by 2050, and they said it would take 18 gigawatts of nuclear alone, but hundreds of billions of dollars in new transmission and new generation of other types as well.“
When asked further about the “transition” demanded by the CER Minister Smith had this to say: “Yeah. So I mean, there are other ways to reduce emissions and this is not the way to do it. By ensuring we have that reliable,affordable system, we’ll be able to reduce emissions where the actual emissions are in our transportation, in our electric arc furnaces, in our home heating potentially.“
In the podcast he goes on to brag about the new EV plants as well as expanding our transmission lines to accommodate increased electricity demand required throughout the province to accommodate the CER but says nothing about the relative costs.
We Ontarians should find it disappointing the province is acting in such a meek and mild way in fighting the CER as the “net-zero” transition will drive up costs tremendously as we are refurbishing nuclear plants, adding short term storage while pushing heat pumps for heating and building new transmission lines at huge costs despite our electricity system currently being 90% emissions free.
Conclusion
It is truly disappointing IESO have seemingly abandoned what was formerly their unbiased disclosure of “facts” and seem to now be endorsing the “climate change” cult and abiding by the dictum of the Federal Government via its Clean Electricity Regulations (CER), released in August 2023! The CER “outline steps to mandate the decarbonization of electricity systems across the country. The IESO has released its formal response to the draft CER, which provides comments aimed at supporting an orderly transformation of the electricity system.“
IESO obviously take their direction from Minister of Energy, Todd Smith, who fails to recognize his positioning in response to the CER is simply an endorsement of it. The minor changes made to the CER will do nothing to change the IESO forecast in its “Pathways to Decarbonization Report” stating it would cost “hundreds of billions of dollars in new transmission and new generation of other types as well.“NB
Refurbish our nuclear plants but ditch the rest!
NB: What the Pathways to Decarbonization Report said: “In terms of both transmission and supply, the Pathways scenario would need $375 billion to $425 billion in new infrastructure investment, and result in an annual total system cost of approximately $60 billion by 2050.“
Unbeknown to most Ontarians is the fact we have a high dependency on nuclear power as baseload power and the message always handed out to us and the media is that we have over 10,000 MW of that baseload in operation. While the foregoing is true it doesn’t recognize the important fact that the four Darlington units representing almost 3,400 MW (850 MW per unit) were all undergoing refurbishment, which is a fairly long process. OPG had announced back on March 18, 2023, that Unit 3 had been reconnected and would “produce an extra 3 terawatt-hours of energy, enough to power 350,000 homes for an entire year.“
Here we are one year later and for some unknown reason Unit 3 was shut down on March 17th but at this point the reason why the shutdown occurred has not been disclosed! None of the Darlington units are currently operating.
While the Spring and Fall months tend to be Ontario’s low demand months, they are also the time of year when wind and solar generation usually brings us surplus demand. What the latter means is IESO sells off wind and solar surplus power for pennies of its cost to our neighbours in Michigan, New York, and Quebec or frequently curtail production. Those happenings end up costing us Ontario ratepayers millions of dollars, almost on a daily basis.
With the Darlington Unit 3 currently shut down for some reason it is interesting to review IESO data for March 22nd!
As the 22nd was a somewhat cooler than normal Spring workday throughout the province peak demand was reached early in the day coming at Hour 9 peaking at 18,730 MW and demand stayed around the 18,000 MW level for most of the day. The result of that demand was without the 850 MW Darlington Unit 3 in operation IESO considerably reduced its intertie activities (coincidentally net exports averaged only 864 MW per hour or what “Unit 3” would have generated) as we had considerably less surplus generation. One of the other reasons for less exports was those IWT (industrial wind turbines) only operated at 15.7% of their rated capacity whereas on other spring days they will reach as high as 80%! Interestingly for two hours (Hours 20 and 21) IESO were actually importing more generation than they were exporting.
Thankfully Ontario has a fairly large amount of contracted natural gas generation plants, and they were busy for the full 24 hours generating a total of 106,138 MWh or about what 3.5 million Ontario households would consume over the day. Without those gas plants we should suspect we would have experienced rolling blackouts but we didn’t, thanks to the “fossil fuel” generation from those gas plants!
Now, those telling us what is needed in the province is “storage” in the form of “BESS” (battery energy storage systems) instead of natural gas plants; we should wonder; how much would we have needed? Those BESS units will generate just four (4) hours of their rated capacity before having to be recharged, so, to replace gas generation for March 22nd we would have needed a minimum of 27,000 MW of storage (106,138/4 hours). If one examines IESO’s 2024 Annual Planning Outlook it states; “While batteries and other storage technologies are proven and currently participate in Ontario at a small scale, participation of these resources is expected to increase in the middle of this decade as a result of IESO action and government announcements.“
As it presently stands the only significant BESS contract is the Oneida Energy Storage (OES) project, a 250MW/ 1,000MWh grid-connected lithium-ion battery storage facility being developed on 10 acres of land. So, the 27,000 MW of BESS capacity would need about 270,000 acres of land or about 422 square miles which is about 2/3rds of the size of the City of Toronto.
Conclusion:
Perhaps the Ford led Ontario Provincial Government will pick the Greenbelt for the BESS units to end the use of fossil fuels in the electricity sector as they comprise 2 million acres. Just over 13% of it would be needed in order to insert the BESS units and save us from the emissions of those natural gas plants! Only time will tell if that is what happens but in the interim Ford and all the MPPs should perhaps spend some time and watch “Climate-the Movie”! If they did, they might start to think logically!
Parker Gallant Energy Perspectives 