Noted in an earlier post about how IWT (industrial wind turbines) were forecast to perform on November 27, 2023, suggested had IESO accepted all of their forecasted generation (95,884 MW) they would have operated at a capacity level of 81.5%. IESO curtailed quite a bit on that particular day but still accepted almost 74% of their total forecasted capacity so let’s compare it to December 2, 2023.
Over the full day of December 2, 2023, a grand total of 13,378 MWh or 11.4% of IWT capacity was generated and IESO didn’t curtail any, but we needed quite a bit more generation or it would have been lights out for many households. Thankfully, Ontario’s natural gas plants were at the ready and delivered 81,486 MWh or about what 50% of all Ontario households consume daily. Needless to say, the foregoing demonstrates the necessity of having those natural gas plants available for those days when the wind isn’t blowing, or the sun isn’t shining.
For those who are big fans of IWT however they will never acknowledge the importance of those natural gas plants and sincerely believe that all we need is some BESS (battery energy storage systems) but they can’t seem to grasp the limitations of BESS which can only deliver about 90% of their rated capacity for four (4) hours before needing to be recharged.
What the foregoing implies is we would have needed over 20,000 MW of BESS (81,486 MW divided by those 4 hours of storage capacity) just to replace what our natural gas plants provided. If we then look at the potential cost of that storage based on just the one contract IESO has signed for a 250 MW BESS unit we should be shocked at the cost. From the information available it appears the Oneida BESS contract IESO have signed had a capital cost of about $700 million so the additional 79 BESS units would run those storage costs up to $56 billion (20,000 MW/250 = 80 [250 MW BESS] X $700 million = $56 billion). The foregoing would represent amortized annual capital costs of $2.8 billion over their 20 year lifespan without allowing for any additional revenue to guarantee the owners a profit margin. No doubt the owners would want to make a profit which would add more costs to our electricity bills.
The above is all related to the federal governments “net-zero full electrification” push they want to impose on all provincial electricity grids! The end result would drive up costs further than the McGuinty/Wynne government did by over 100% and also create blackouts.
What Ontario really needs is more natural gas plants with the ability to ramp up and down when needed, not more variable wind and solar, along with big BESS units loaded with batteries that will eventually need to be recycled or dumped into our landfills!
Conclusion:
Net-zero will drive up electricity bills leaving us with “net-zero” dollars to feed our families.
Parker Gallant Energy Perspectives 