More Largesse for Electric Vehicles in Ontario Coming

 Wow, there it was in black and white!

It was a press release from the Ontario Minister of Energy, Todd Smith asking (nay, telling) the Ontario Energy Board “to explore options for an Electric Vehicle Charger Discount Electricity Rate as the province continues to support the adoption of electric vehicles (EV).”

Needless to say the press release goes on and on to glorify EV reminding one of old expressions such as putting “lipstick on a pig” believing it will change our beliefs and the lipstick will change our view of the pig from “ugly to pretty”!

A couple of examples follow from the press release:

1.”A new electricity rate would support electric vehicle adoption across the province by reducing the electricity costs for charging infrastructure where demand is only beginning to emerge, making them more economical.”

Presumably what the foregoing implies is that cheaper fuel costs (charging your EV) will entice more Ontarians to purchase an EV!  On the other side of the road if you own or purchase an ICE vehicle you will be hammered by added costs which now include that “carbon tax” which will continue to add to those fuel costs as it increases year over year!

What is missing in the advent to “cheaper fuel costs”; implied by conversion to an EV, here in Ontariowe are many facts and costs associated with the electricity sector including:

a) increasing your home service from a 100-amp to 200 amp service, b) the electricity service on your street may require an upgrade, c) the local transformer station may also require an upgrade should EV ownership increase substantially d) lots more generation will be needed to satisfy demand.  All of the foregoing will add to the costs of electricity which will impact all households and businesses either by increased electricity rates or even more than the current $7.3 billion will need to be absorbed by taxpayers.

2.“With $43 billion in new electric vehicle and EV battery manufacturing investments in Ontario’s auto sector over the last several years, our government is working to improve access to public charging infrastructure to support drivers who are making the transition to electric vehicles.”

If one follows the news and has read the November 17, 2023 press release from the PBO (Parliament Budget Office) it is interesting to note it estimated “government support” for just the battery manufacturing sector amounts to $43.6 billion which is remarkably close to what the Ontario government claims is being invested in Ontario’s auto sector.

The PBO goes on to state “We estimate the total cost of government support for EV battery manufacturing by Northvolt, Volkswagen and Stellantis-LGES to be $43.6 billion over 2022-23 to 2032-33, which is $5.8 billion higher than the $37.7 billion in announced costs,” adds Mr. Giroux. The $5.8 billion in non-announced costs represents foregone corporate income tax revenues for the federal, Ontario and Quebec governments combined.

Of the $43.6 billion in total cost, PBO estimates that $26.9 billion (62 per cent) in costs will be incurred by the federal government and $16.7 billion (38 per cent) will fall on the provincial governments of Ontario and Quebec.”

What the PBO report notes is that not only are we Canadian and Ontario taxpayers providing huge subsidies for those investments but at the same time we are granting them tax free status.

The PBO press release goes on to specify “Of the $43.6 billion in total cost, PBO estimates that $26.9 billion (62 per cent) in costs will be incurred by the federal government and $16.7 billion (38 per cent) will fall on the provincial governments of Ontario and Quebec.“  The PBO goes on stating; “We estimate a break-even timeline of 15 years for the $13.2 billion production subsidy announced for Volkswagen, and 23 years for the $15.0 billion in production subsidies announced for Stellantis-LGES—consistent with our previous estimate of 20 years based on their combined production schedules”. 

The foregoing suggests our current Federal and Provincial governments contain politicians we elected to see into the future!

Based on the incredible commitments being made here in Ontario and the obvious push to capture EV manufacturing we Ontarians should wonder what is the uptake of BEV and Hybrids (including plugins) when compared to ICE and Diesel sales?

Are We Buying What Politicians Are Selling?

A quick review of StatsCan vehicle registrations in Ontario* for the 2023 fourth quarter disclosed there were 171,157 vehicle registrations in the province in total. The registrations break down as follows:

            

Conclusion

It sure appears Ontarians are not sold on the purchase of BEV whereas gasoline hybrids are much more popular but even those didn’t achieve a 10% market share. The BEV market share has not bloomed suggesting the $43 billion of taxpayer dollars handed to the auto companies are not inspiring people to purchase them.

It is looking more and more like our politicians; with blinkered foresight, don’t have an appreciation of taxpayers hard earned dollars!  The time has come for them to realize they are not Nostradamus and simply manage the present system and stop gambling with our taxes!

 *Ontario doesn’t offer rebates but the Federal Government grants $5,000 for the purchase of a new BEV                                          

We’re getting zapped by Guilbeault’s radical, no-fuel, electrified future: Full Comment podcast

Brian Lilley a great reporter for the Toronto Sun and the National Post kindly invited me to be on his Full Comment podcast to discuss the electricity sector along with what is happening with the issue of EV and what the future looks like.

We cover a lot of ground during our chat and you can listen to the full podcast here:

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/were-getting-zapped-by-guilbeaults-radical-no-fuel-electrified-future

Battery Fires and other Bits

Ocean Battery Fires:

Many people who follow the news will recall back in late July 2023 it was reported the Freemantle, a car carrier caught fire off the coast of the Netherlands.  The ship had over 3,000 Mercedes, and BMW cars on board and reputedly had over 500 electric vehicles as part of the cargo. It has been reported in numerous articles that the lithium batteries in the EV started the fire. Naturally the loss of the vessel was substantially and one estimate was US $330 million so that presumably was noticed by the insurance companies.  An article related to the foregoing carried the following, suggesting insurance rates will ballon as it stated:  “As such, the call for best practices and standards for alternatively fuelled vehicles and electric vehicles is getting louder, especially for ocean transport where values in the triple-digit million pounds or euro range are rapidly rising. According to recent press reports, the International Maritime Organisation has set up a special working group to address these challenges, with particular focus being placed on the safety and handling of electric vehicles.“

On December 30^th, 2023, the press reported a cargo ship carrying “lithium-ion batteries had a fire in its hold and was being kept offshore near an Alaska port”. The Genius Star XI, was carrying a load of lithium-ion batteries across the Pacific Ocean, from Vietnam to San Diego, the US Coast Guard’s Alaska district said in a release. The article went on to note:  “The fire started on Christmas Day in cargo hold No. 1, a spokesperson for ship owner Wisdom Marine Group said in a statement. The crew released carbon dioxide into the hold and sealed it over concerns of an explosion.“

Hmm, seems ironic that while the eco-warriors and our current demented politicians in the developed world want to eliminate “carbon dioxide” use from our lives utilizing such items as “batteries” to replace fossil fuels that their fiery nature requires the use of CO 2 to control their fires when they occur! We should wonder, will that cause “global warming”?

Land Based Battery Fires:

No doubt many people who follow the energy sector are familiar with how those pushing the wind and solar agenda to end the use of fossil fuels for future generations have discovered they are frequently absent; meaning blackouts or brownouts will become common place.  Those pushing that agenda have discovered BESS (battery energy storage systems) and believe they are the panacea to solve that problem and provide power when the sun isn’t shining, or the wind isn’t blowing.  Those Bess units are generally only able to store power for four hours so will not play much of a role in reducing potential blackouts and they are also demonstrating some bad characteristics!  One recent BESS unit labelled “Big Bessie” in Australia recently caught fire even though it was still at the commissioning stage and nearby residents were warned to stay at home as they were in the UK when electric buses caught fire and in California when a BESS unit caught fire near Moss Landing and New York State where they have had three such fires. It is telling that the company (Genex) in Australia, responsible for Big Bessie, seems to have been effective at getting tax dollars as another project they have been involved in is a 250 MW “pumped storage” unit that will offer eight hours of response.  The following from the article indicates how the Australian taxpayers have contributed to it: “It has also required a big chunk of taxpayer funding, including a $610 million loan from the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility and a $47 million grant from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency.“

Electric Bike Fires

For those who can’t afford to purchase an EV or who live in those newly created “15-minute cities” they often rely on bikes, and many have purchased e-bikes that have costs ranging from $700 to over $3,000!  Unfortunately many of those have resulted in fires.  One such fire occurred at the Yonge-Sheppard TTC subway station in Toronto on New Year’s Eve resulting in two people being injured and taken to the hospital.  The following is a picture of that occurrence:

An article in late October on CityNews noted up to that date the Toronto Fire Services reported “ In all of 2022, there were 29 fires linked to lithium-ion batteries. However, there have been 50 such fires so far in 2023.“  The foregoing represented a 72% increase in those fire types up to that point. In New York those lithium-ion fired e-bikes in just the first six months of 2023 suggested it has been even worse! A New York Times article in late June stated: “In New York, lithium battery fires have killed 13 people so far this year, including four people in a blaze that started in an e-bike store in Chinatown on Tuesday. A total of 23 people have died in battery fires since 2021. This year, there have been 108 fires so far, compared with 98 fires for the same period last year.“

Scottish Battery Factory Goes Bust:

News from just before Christmas was bad for Britian’s “net-zero” push as yet another battery factory bit the dust when an investor pulled the plug on new fresh funding.  The company: ANTE Power, called in “administrators” to wind it up. ANTE followed another battery manufacturer, Britishvolt, who had earlier in the year pulled the plug due to its inability to get more funding.  Both of those companies had previously received government funding with ANTE handed “a grant of £5.0 million“ in 2021. Britishvolt had secured a commitment from the government of “£100m in total to Britishvolt for the project“ to build a battery factory in January 2022.  It’s not clear how much of the foregoing they had received before its demise in January 2023 but the failure of both substantiates the inability of politicians and government bureaucrats to pick winners.  Our Canadian politicians of both Federal and Provincial stripes have embarked on the same path and we taxpayers will pay the price as have the British taxpayers.

Conclusion:

It certainly appears the full “electrification” push is not the panacea the eco-warriors and our politicians envisaged as the damages far outweigh their claims while they blame “wildfires” on “climate change”.  Their proposed solutions to reduce our GHG emissions appears to be far more damaging to mankind then nature’s natural occurrences and appear to create lots of fires that emit GHG!

We should wonder; will future unusual climate occurrences be blamed on the eco-warriors and our current brand of politicians?

It appears the Church of the Climate Change Cult is losing some of its Flock Part 2

This post will add to those of the first of this series and point out additional issues facing the Church of the Climate Change Cult. Those issues are resulting in further worshipers losing their faith as the forecasts from the CCCC apostles such as Al gore and Greta Thunberg fail to materialize. The 20-foot sea level rise predicted by Gore is falling well short of his forecast and PM Trudeau’s promise to Greta to plant 2 billion trees by 2030 also appears to be in jeopardy as just two examples. Let’s have a look at other factors that may well be causing the CCCC to lose its luster and followers.

EV, Autos, Trucks and Buses

While the prior article had much in it related to EV the focus was principally on electric automobiles and their falling attractiveness to those on the planet who want “reliable and affordable” vehicles. 

Unfortunately those we frequently elect to run our municipalities, provinces/states, and countries in the developed world are overtaken by the CCCC and due to that fact, spend our tax dollars by misappropriating them.  Some recent examples come to mind so let’s look at just a couple of them!

Electric Buses: The City of Edmonton with a bus fleet of 1000 were enticed by taxpayer handouts from the Federal ($21.5 million) and Provincial governments ($10.8million) back in 2018 to replace 40 of their buses with electric buses manufactured by Proterra Inc., a US company.  The city kicked in $10.8 million and appear to have ordered another 20 buses at some point presumably with more government handouts. The original Federal press release indicated they had signed a bilateral agreement with the province to provide a total of $3.3 billion with the City of Edmonton slotted to receive $877,984,551 under its public transit stream.  Needless to say the press release claimed the handouts would “improve commute times, reduce emissions and lay the foundation for economic growth and job creation.“

Well over five years have passed since those elected politicians got together to pat each other on the back about their decision to hand out our tax dollars so how has it worked out? Was it a success or a failure?

As noted in a prior article Proterra Inc. has filed for “bankruptcy protection under Chapter 11 and in their press release announcing the filing stated: “We have faced various market and macroeconomic headwinds, that have impacted our ability to efficiently scale all of our opportunities simultaneously”. Their filing for bankruptcy protection also affected several other companies in Europe who had been handed taxpayer dollars, so the cascading affect has wasted a lot of tax dollars. Going further; we should wonder, how are those 60 buses in Edmonton performing?

Things are not looking good based on a recent article which stated “those buses have been plagued with issues and more than half are already out of service. Three years in and it hasn’t been a smooth ride.“  The article also noted: “The transit union said they faced numerous mechanical issues, battery problems and dealt with missing parts. Many of the drivers couldn’t even get behind the wheel.“

So, a mere three years after the buses were delivered it is apparent those politicians back in 2018 appear to have tossed our tax dollars out the door!

Electric Trucks and School Buses:

Three years after those elected politicians handed out our tax dollars in Alberta for electric transit buses the Federal ones popped up again in Montreal at Lion Electric, a manufacturer of electric trucks and electric school buses. This time it was PM Trudeau himself and Quebec Premier, Legault in March 2021 announcing a $100 million “investment/loan” to  Lion Electric with $30 million of it “forgivable” if, Lion keeps jobs in Quebec. Later on in 2021 the Feds quietly handed Lion Electric another $50 million of our tax dollars which was not announced and could only be found in the 69 page 2021-22 Departmental Results Report for “Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada“ as an example of their investments.  The following is the full text from the foregoing: “$50 million towards The Lion Electric Co.’s $184.3 million project for the establishment of a highly automated battery-pack assembly plant in Saint Jérôme, Quebec“.  We should all wonder, how its going and did our tax dollars help to create a flourishing company and create jobs?

 Well, lets travel to Joliet, Illinois where back on July 21, 2023 Lion Electric inaugurated the opening of its 900,000-square-foot plant that will reputedly manufacture as many as 2,500 all-electric school buses by the end of 2023 and employ as many as 1,400 skilled workers. Based on an article in Newsweek just over a month later the author stated U.S. school buses are the largest public transportation fleet with 480,000 operating.  The article went on describing emissions from the existing fleet of fossil fuel powered buses and also noted; “Lion Electric’s buses are reported to cost US$375,000 each, about US$150,000 more than a traditionally powered school bus.“ If one does the quick math on replacing the fleet with all-electric school buses it comes to a mind-blowing extra US $72 billion dollars!

So financially how is Lion Electric doing?

Apparently even though Lion Electric’s school buses are almost 67% more expensive then fossil fueled buses they are still losing money as their September 30, 2023 quarterly report noted. Revenues jumped almost 100% from the comparable 2022 quarter but their losses increased from US $17.2 million to US $19.9 million or 15.7%! The fallout from the results was not only a drop in their share price (down 37% over the past 12 months) but also an announcement they would cut 10% of their workforce in both Canada and the US estimated at 150 jobs.

Based on the results since the purported 2021 “investments” by our federal government it appears obvious we should never trust elected politicians to pick industrial winners.

EV are the “Bright Spot” and “EV are Less Reliable”:

As mankind travels down the road of what is labelled as the catastrophes of manmade “climate change” the CCCC push is that we must electrify all transportation. At the same time we also hear from others that EV create emissions during the manufacturing process and later via their disposal. An amusing article recently appeared claiming EV are the only bright spot in the fight against climate change. The claim was out of a report from the Bezos Earth Fund founded and supported by Jeff Bezos the richest man in the world whose company (Amazon) delivers packages to your door using ICE powered vehicles.  At the same time another article from Consumer Reports released the results of a survey which found: “EVs from the 2021 through 2023 model years encountered nearly 80 per cent more problems than did vehicles propelled by internal combustion engines.“

The “facts” about EV to anyone with commonsense suggests that “bright spot” is looking very much like a blackout or brownout in the electrification push by the CCCC!

Conclusion:                                                                          

We need to put an end to politicians believing they have the right to disperse our tax dollars as the above examples clearly point out.  It is readily apparent they don’t have the skill sets to distinguish what the future will hold so they should not pretend or act as it they were experts from Wall Street or Bay Street.  Stop gambling with our money!

It seems apparent the first two segments associated with the review of the CCCC have only scratched the surface so stay tuned for Part 3.

Is the EV House of Cards Collapsing

The house of cards seems to be collapsing while Canada, the Province of Ontario and the rest of the developed world is busy throwing our tax dollars at EV companies of various stripes, but recent events suggest the conversion of fossil fuelled transportation to full on electrification may be falling apart.

Recent happenings in Europe and California seem to confirm politicians have trouble picking winners when they hand out our tax dollars! Let’s track down just one of those, with politicians, supported by bureaucratic appointments, in at least three countries having demonstrated their incompetence!

Volta Trucks

Volta Trucks is a Swedish company established to produce electric delivery trucks and appears to have been created initially with private capital from Ahlstrom Holding AB a publicly traded investment company in Sweden. Part of Volta’s initial history and it’s planning can be found in a lengthy article titled “Zero to Hero” from October 2020.  In early 2022 Volta announced they had raised “230 million euros ($260 million) in Series C funding round, which will finance it through the launch of series production of its Volta Zero electric truck in late 2022.“

Then in March 2023 they announced they had “secured investment of €40 million (around $A65 million) from the European Investment Bank designed to help support the company’s rollout of its Truck as a Service (TaaS) infrastructure“.  The European Investment Bank is owned by the members of the EU so is a taxpayer funded institution.  One month later it was announced they “received €24.6m (£21.5m) in funding from the German Federal Ministry of Transport, which will be used to subsidise vehicle costs for 151 all-electric Volta Zero trucks.“ We should assume the latter was a German bureaucracy simply handing out taxpayer money.

Based on the foregoing it sure appeared Volta were potentially on the path to success until just a few months after receiving those taxpayer dollars; the house of cards suddenly collapsed as: “Volta Trucks said Tuesday it would file for bankruptcy in Sweden after its manufacturing plans were hit by problems at its electric battery supplier“ which happens to be US based electric bus maker Proterra Inc.

Proterra Inc. recently filed for bankruptcy protection under Chapter 11 and in their press release announcing the filing stated: “We have faced various market and macroeconomic headwinds, that have impacted our ability to efficiently scale all of our opportunities simultaneously”. They had previously noted having experienced “supply chain disruptions” and “pandemic-related labour absenteeism.”

Needless to say Proterra Inc. were also the beneficiaries of government largess although it was difficult to find out how much they have received over the years other than “a $10 million “loan from the Paycheck Protection Program by the Trump administration in 2020 that was forgiven in May 2022“. In their SEC Chapter 11 press release filing they noted: “Proterra said it expected the billions of dollars in funding for electric buses would “remain an important factor in our company’s growth prospects,” but didn’t note receiving any funding from either the infrastructure or climate laws directly.“ The Washington Post article in respect to the foregoing also had an interesting tidbit about President Biden’s Energy Secretary noting; “Jennifer Granholm served on Proterra’s board from 2017 until she became secretary and sold her stock in the company in May 2021, providing her with a net capital gain of $1.6 million following criticism from the GOP.“

Needless to say the shares of Proterra have fallen 90% since the Chapter 11 filing so Biden’s Energy Secretary, Jennifer Granholm should be delighted the GOP forced her to sell her stock!

The House of Cards                                                                                            

There is much more going on around the world associated with the  “house of cards” affecting the push to eliminate fossil fuels and their reliability to power our transportation sector. Those include, insurance costs, uncontrollable fire outbreaks, limited range and reliability of EV as major issues and are associated with all forms of electric battery powered transportation.

Along with the foregoing the big question on the bankruptcies cascading in the above examples which wasn’t mentioned in any of the articles relates to those; “supply chain disruptions”!  Were they fully or partially caused by dependence on Chinese supply of certain materials/components etc. involved in the manufacture of those trucks by Volta or those buses by Proterra?

If China were or are the cause of those “supply chain disruptions” we should hope our politicians have noted that fact and accordingly, stop the fast push aimed at eliminating all vehicles using diesel or gasoline by ambitions future dates. Their push, if maintained, will benefit China and we in the developed countries will see many more bankruptcies utilizing our tax dollars while increasing energy poverty and severely damaging our economies. 

Fossil Fuels are Needed to Create and Charge EV Batteries—Who Knew?

The foregoing question is one “climate change” green advocates totally ignore when pushing their agenda to eliminate fossil fuel use in the developed countries around the world. 

The fascinating issue surrounding the above is: eco-warriors insist we convert our ICE (internal combustion engines) cars, trucks, buses, etc. etc. to battery powered ones while eliminating any and all fossil fuel electricity generation from our electricity grids. Those “electricity grids” however, are expected to generate sufficient power to charge those batteries powering those ICE while also providing electricity to heat and cool our homes, supply our businesses, etc. etc. Batteries will also be used for electricity storage.  As one would expect, the forecast demand for increased electricity generation is astronomical as is the projected cost and reliability of both our generation sources and grids resulting from the push.

Those pushing the use of batteries also seem to ignore the fact China currently has 60.4% of the world’s battery market share.

Eco-warriors Push Wind and Solar Generation to Eliminate Fossil Fuel Use

Needless to say, those committed to the advocacy that fossil fuel use and carbon emissions must be eliminated to “save the planet” push wind and solar generation as the panacea. They continue to suggest it is the “cheap” and best alternative but here in Ontario where we have 4,940 MW of grid connected IWT (industrial wind turbines) they don’t bother to notice when we experience their failure.

Industrial Wind Turbines Demonstrate their Failure

The past three days are examples of their failure!  For the full 24 hours on September 29^th those 4,940 MW of IWT managed to only generate 5,583 MWh or 4.7% of their capacity and on the 30^th their total generation was a miserly 2,780 MWh or 2.3% of their capacity and finally on October 1^st they reached total generation of 3,279 MWh or 2,7% of their capacity. During the peak hour of each of those days they respectively delivered, 1.4%, 0.9% and 1.8% yet their capacity represents 13% of grid connected capacity according to IESO, Ontario’s grid operator.  Needless to say, the gas plants ramped up and down over those three days to produce the electricity needed to keep our lights on while those IWT were failing!

The Toronto Star’s Fiction Writer

It was amusing that while those IWT with their “first-to-the-grid” rights were failing to deliver needed power on those three relatively low demand days the TorStar’s top “fiction writer”, Marco Chown Oved penned a lengthy article titled: “Ontario gas plants were supposed to run only during peak periods. Instead they’re running most of the time, polluting the air you breathe“.  Needless to say, he managed to get quotes from representatives of those entities and individuals pushing the “net-zero” objectives and used one-sided information from the IEA, IPCC, and the CER (Canada Energy Regulator) to make the case. 

Former Mayor of Toronto, David Miller was included with comments as was a current Toronto Councilor, Paula Fletcher along with Peter Tabuns, energy critic for the Ontario NDP and Ontario Green Party leader Mike Schreiner! The article bashes the fact natural gas “peaking plants” were needed to operate. Quotes from the prejudiced groups included Greenpeace and Environmental Defence and supported the full theme of the “investigation” alluded to by the author. The theme suggested those gas plants were operating when they weren’t needed and went on to claim renewable energy such as wind and solar were cheap and could be coupled with battery storage.  The author of the article obviously failed to do a real “investigation” which would have disclosed, without a doubt, the inability of those IWT to generate power necessary to avoid blackouts in the province and the fact they are paid at rates well above all other sources of generation.

The article also fails to note how Ontario taxpayers are burdened with $6.5 billion dollars annually, simply to absorb some of the costs of our existing wind and solar generation. 

It is disgusting to realize an article such as this along with the individuals cited to push the theme, are using our tax dollars that will crater our economy while it creates further energy poverty!

Battery Manufacturing Uses Fossil Fuels

Kansas First

 There currently appears to be a move in the developed world countries to try and capture some of that 60.4% of battery manufacturing that China has, and the politicians are doing that utilizing our tax dollars.

The fascinating issue about that is some of those attempts are leading to more demand for fossil fuel generation as noted in a recent article out of Kansas.  Panasonic is building a US$4 billion battery plant in De Sota, Kansas and is also slated to receive US$6.8 billion from President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. Panasonic needs reliable power so that has resulted in an extension in the life of a coal-fired power plant in Kansas.

Ontario Second

The article mentions Capital Power’s natural gas fired generating plant in Windsor. That plant will need to burn a lot of natural gas to ensure the Stellantis EV battery plant in Windsor has reliable electricity  available 24/7, 365 days a year that wind turbines and solar panels cannot provide.  The reliable, non-intermittent, electricity to the EV battery plant will also be supplied by Atura’s (OPG’s) Brighton Beach gas fired generating station in Windsor. The EV battery plant will also use natural gas for space heating, water heating and battery production processes.

Enbridge filed an application to the OEB for approval of a $358 million pipeline required to supply the gas plants and the Stellantis EV battery plant. The pipeline is uneconomic because Stellantis, Atura, and Capital Power have refused to pay a contribution that would cover the full cost of providing them with gas service.  Therefore, the pipeline, if approved by the OEB, will require a subsidy from gas ratepayers for more than 40 years. 

Federal and Provincial governments have already promised $15 billion in subsidies to Stellantis but that’s not enough. Stellantis also wants subsidies from gas ratepayers. You can read all about it on the OEB website under the docket EB-2022-0157 “Panhandle Regional Expansion Project”. The hearings will be available live on You Tube.

 Now, “isn’t that ironic” as Canadian singer Alanis Morrisette might say about the above!

Conclusion

It is obvious the “energy transition” will require lots of subsidies from taxpayers and ratepayers, and apparently lots of natural gas. It’s seem weird those “investigate” reported at the Toronto Star fail to recognize those basic facts!

Ontario Layering Electricity Costs with Battery Energy Storage System (BESS)

Back on May 18, 2023 a CBC article announced: “Battery project planned for Napanee area would power 250K homes“ but, that was only a portion of what Ontario’s IESO (Independent Electricity System Operator) had contracted at that time.  IESO’s announcement fell in line with Ministerial Directives issued by Minister of Energy, Todd Smith to acquire “energy storage”!

It is also annoying the CBC article in their title ignored the fact those “250K homes” would only be powered for four hours, but we have come to expect the CBC to fail to present all facts when touting the wonders of decarbonization presented by politicians. In the case of the article referenced above the contract was awarded to a wholly owned subsidiary of OPG (Atura Power) they formed to hold their “fossil fuels” generation plants such as the “Napanee gas plant” (and others) which they purchased from TC Energy Corp.

Most Ontarians will recall Ontario’s Auditor General estimated the cost to us taxpayers and ratepayers to move the plant from Oakville was $645 million. Those costs played a big part in reducing the Ontario Liberal Party’s elected representatives to what became the “minivan party”. The former happenings appear to have been forgotten by the Ford led OPC party, now in charge, as they push to layer costs, once again onto us electricity users.

As noted above IESO’s announcement when made awarding the BESS Napanee contract to Atura also stated they awarded a total of “nameplate capacity” of 780 MW for battery storage and that didn’t include the 250 MW BESS contract awarded to Oneida Energy bringing the total contracted BESS units to 1,030 MW of capacity.

From all appearances the Atura Power BESS unit will utilize either the Napanee natural gas plants (978 MW) or the Lennox dual fuel (2,100 MW) to charge the batteries to generate more payments to Atura and their owners which are OPG. The plan suggests those batteries will be charged with fossil fuels and add costs to the electricity sector.  At the same time there will be power losses due to the transfer. It should also be noted the Lennox generation plants are only occasionally used when demand exceeds 21,000 MW in the province and Scott Luft recently posted the following after the highest demand hour occurred in the current year: “not surprising then that Lennox – which I consider an emergency reserve – is seeing its highest output since 2016.“

Yet another recent coincidence associated with Napanee raised its head as Boralex, a renewable energy public company with its Head Office in Quebec is proposing a 600 MW BESS unit near the OPG owned Lennox dual fuel plants and Napanee natural gas plants. One should presume the BESS unit will also be supplied by either or both of those OPG generating stations once again to charge their batteries with fossil fuels. The following screenshot notes their plan to meet with people in the Napanee area on September 28^th.

Noted in a prior article was an estimate of the costs of the Oneida 250 MW BESS unit which appeared to be approximately $800 million (an estimated $220 million came from taxpayers with the bulk from CIB [Canadian Infrastructure Bank]). NB: The associated costs of the above IESO announcement of 780 MW along with the Boralex units would have capital costs in the area of $4.4 billion and presumably will include taxpayer support! If the lifespan was 20 years that would add approximately $220 Million (capital cost recovery only) annually as a minimum to our Ontario electricity bills and wouldn’t include either the costs of charging those units or a profit margin. 

On the latter it is interesting to note the share price of Boralex (traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange) has fallen in the last year by almost 28% which seems to be the pattern with other publicly traded shares of renewable energy companies.

We should all hope the bloom is falling off the decarbonization plan as the costs of doing so is impacting deep thinkers into realizing it is not the panacea politicians and “climate change” advocates have professed. It is causing energy poverty along with giving China billions of our dollars associated with their commanding lead in manufacturing batteries, etc. used for both electric vehicles as well as those BESS units popping up around the world.

We should hope our political masters will finally see the light, but they seem more enamored with the BS coming from the “climate change” advocates than the harm they are causing in the developed world!

NB: Coincidently the VP and CFO of Boralex; Bruno Gilmette, is also a director of the CIB.

Public Policy Forum Another “climate change” Charity Dependent on Taxpayers Part 2

The earlier, Part 1 about the Public Policy Forum (PPF), dealt with its creation and how, as a registered CRA “charity”, it became so dependent on utilizing our tax dollars to create the messages it conveys.

PPF’s recent article was labelled; “Project of the Century”, “A Blueprint for Growing Canada’s Clean Electricity Supply – and Fast“.  It’s a lengthy article which received lots of media attention and was an outgrowth of the  “Energy Future Forum” (EFF). The EFF was created  under the purview of their well-paid CEO, Ed Greenspon.  PPF was even able to obtain federal government grants of $105K from the Ministry of Natural Resources to move it along! The 5-page letter Greenspon sent to those who agreed to “join” the launch of the EFF in late December 2019 carried the following message amongst others:

“It is the overarching objective of the Energy Future Forum to determine how best to close Canada’s decarbonization gaps in a manner favourable to the economy and national unity – and for the world.   These objectives will undoubtedly take our conversations into the realms of cleaner energy production systems (well beyond the intensity improvements of past); natural and engineered carbon capture methods; displacement of global emissions through exports of cleaner resources and cleantech; electrification of the transportation and other sectors; the application of Al and big data to resources; greater efficiency in heating and cooling buildings; etc. etc.”

 As is obvious if one reads the “Project of the Century” report it appears to lean heavily on the 2021 report from the Canadian Climate Institute (CCI) titled “Canada’s Net Zero Future“. The CCI was created by the Federal Liberal Party under leadership of PM Justin Trudeau and were handed $20 million tax dollars in April 2019 by Catherine McKenna, the then Minister of Environment and Climate Change. The CCI since morphed into a charity under the leadership of Rick Smith, formerly of Environmental Defence fame but have retained their laughable “non-partisan” nomenclature!  The EFF report credits the CCI five (5) times in its report and in respect to the “electrification” process they note the CCI’s report says the additional grid capacity must grow at six times the prior rate of the previous decade. That would mean a doubling of capacity of what was built in the prior century but only allowing 27 years. Hmm!

An examination of some of the claims made in the report suggests either confusion or intentional distortion as the following quote indicates:

“ The cost of wind and solar per megawatt hour has fallen radically, but in practical electricity system terms, that cost is less than half the story because renewables actually generate power less than half of the time. No source of electricity generation is operational 100 percent of the time. But wind only produces electricity at 30 to 35 percent of its installed capacity, less than half the so-called capacity factor of natural gas, hydro or nuclear.“  

One should find the foregoing claim that the cost of wind and solar “has fallen radically” is untrue as a recent indicator noted wind turbine costs have increased by 38% in the last two years and another article notes the cost of solar panels has increased by 50% since the second quarter of 2020. Another fallacy in the above is wind and solar “generate power less than half of the time”! Solar in Ontario averages annual generation of only 15% of its capacity meaning it is frequently absent during our cold winters with short daylight hours.  Wind turbines on the other hand produce average generation of 29/30% but: wind generation frequently occurs when demand is low meaning those wind turbines are paid to curtail power, or it is exported/sold to our neighbours at pennies of its cost paid for by the ratepayers and taxpayers of the province.

Time for some truth to power! 

There was the occasional truism in the EFF article in that it stated: “More regulatory flexibility for natural gas power generation allows for greater, not less, penetration of renewables. One day, batteries and other storage solutions will be available at scale to back up renewables, but that day has not arrived yet.“

The truth in the foregoing was that natural gas generation can be ramped up and down whereas the generation produced by those wind and solar “renewables” don’t have that capability. The suggested “storage solutions” from batteries, etc. is not currently a solution that can store excess energy for a duration of more than four (4) hours.  Now try to imagine several cloudy days or the doldrums for three or four days in a row and grid operators will be regularly forecasting “rotating blackouts”!

In Chapter One, the article states:  “ In its March 2023 budget, the federal government put the price tag to build a net-zero economy at an astronomical $125 billion to $140 billion every year until 2050. That compares, the budget said, with current energy transition expenditures of between $15 billion and $25 billion.”

The March 2023 budget claimed total spending of $497 billion and projected a budget deficit of $43 billion so it becomes very scary if one believes the government will indeed spend $140 billion annually and well over the current annual spending “of between $15 billion and $25 billion”.  The additional spending would have increased the projected 2023 deficit to something close to $163 billion (assumes $20 billion of the 2023 budget is aimed at net-zero spending) or $4,000 for each and every member of Canada’s population.  At say added spending of $120 billion annually to achieve that “net-zero” target it would cost a mind blowing $3.240 trillion ($120 billion X 27 years) and in excess of $210,000 per household. As if to amplify the costs associated with the foregoing it is important to look to the future to see how Canada is projected to perform. That look won’t mollify your view as the “Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development predicts Canada will place last among OECD members in real GDP per capita growth until 2060”.

The net result of Canada’s achievement of reaching the net-zero target would reduce global emissions by 1.5%. In the interim the Global Coal Plant Tracker claims China has over 136 GW of coal plants under construction with another 255 GW pre-permitted while India has 31 GW under construction with another 36 GW pre-permitted. 

Rest assured the 1.5% of global emissions we eliminate will pale beside the emissions that will emanate from just those two counties, so why is our governments (federal, provincial and municipal) so determined to damage Canada’s economy throwing many households into energy poverty.

NB:  Part 3 will look at the interactions of PPF and others of the same ilk in government, etc. and paraphrase Sir Walter Scott’s famous meme; “Oh, what a tangled web we weave, when first we practice to deceive!“

Recent Eye-Catching Climate Change Events

IWT (industrial wind turbines) displayed their incredible intermittency

IWT in Ontario recently clearly demonstrated their intermittent behaviour on both July 25^th and July 26^th!  On the 25^th at Hour 10 grid connected IWT delivered 29 MWh (0.24% of rated capacity) and then on the 26^th just 14 hours later they contributed 2,424 MWh (49.5% of rated capacity). Further to that during the first 20 hours of the 25^th they only managed to generate 4,055 MWh (4.1% of rated capacity) but for the final 4 hours of the day they generated 4,046 MWh or 20.6% of their capacity. Intermittency fully evident!

As the expression goes, IWT were up and down like the proverbial “toilet seat”!  Interestingly enough they were somewhat in tune with what happened as early on the 25^th the Darlington-G3 nuclear plant was shut down and then later in the day the Darlington-G4 plant was shut meaning 1,650 MW of nuclear baseload capacity was suddenly gone. OPG doesn’t appear to have explained why as yet but we should hope it is temporary. The shutdown will cause us to both reduce our exports to Michigan and New York of surplus generation as well as import power from Quebec particularly during our high demand hours.

Despite the Darlington shutdowns those IWT continued to display their intermittency as during Hours one to eight on the 26th when demand is low, IESO had them curtail almost 3,500 MW we ratepayers will pay for!

Wow, Solar Panels are Three Times More Carbon-Intensive than the UNIPCC Claims

A recently released lengthy article covering research into the carbon intensiveness of solar panels states those who push the ongoing agenda about their low emissions ignore facts related to the manufacturing of them. The initial study disclosing the foregoing was started by Enrico Mariutti, an introspective 37-year-old Italian from Rome who apparently is skilled at crunching data whereas the IPCC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) use data supplied by others and have not examined that data. Mariutti, after publishing his paper, was contacted by others including a leading “researcher of emissions from renewables” expert who confirmed they failed to analyze the power source used to create the many components involved in manufacturing those solar panels as well over 50% of them came from China where coal generation is dominant. What the foregoing disclosed was natural gas with carbon capture would create less emissions than solar panels!

While it would be great news if we suddenly found out our political leaders such as Steven Guilbeault, Federal Minister of the Environment and Climate Change would bother to read the article and do their own research; don’t hold your breath?

What, Steven Guilbeault is one of Only Eight Minister’s to retain his Portfolio

Well, PM Trudeau just announced his big “cabinet” shuffle dropping seven ministers and changing three quarters of his cabinet.  Only eight ministers retained their cabinet positions and somehow Guilbeault was one of them.  He retained his ministerial position despite the pushback coming from Western Provinces as well as the Atlantic Provinces and he also refused to meet with oil sands companies during his recent trip to Alberta despite Premier Smith earlier having told “ Trudeau-can-go-to-hell sovereignty act where Alberta would refuse to enforce the federal government’s edicts.”

There are many others pushing back such as Joe Oliver former Minister of Natural Resources and Minister of Finance under the Harper led government. Oliver’s recent article in the Financial Post stated: “The faithful are reassured by groupthink, while apostates or sinful skeptics, i.e. “deniers,” are vilified, penalized and ostracized. Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault’s veiled threat to charge Premier Scott Moe of Saskatchewan criminally if he violates federal coal regulations evokes Thomas of Torquemada, Grand Inquisitor of the Spanish Inquisition — though so far absent the burnings at the stake.“

We should all ask the question, why has PM Trudeau allowed him to retain his portfolio when the pushback from east to west on Guilbeault’s efforts to stifle the Canadian economy vilifying Canada’s fossil fuels while raising our cost of living has become such a major issue? 

Another Cargo Ship with Electric Vehicles Catches Fire

Just over a year ago a massive cargo ship (Felicity Ace) with an estimated 4000 electric and non-electric vehicles caught fire and eventually sank. The fire was attributed as being due to the lithium batteries in the EVs catching fire. 

Well, the foregoing is slightly old news as yet another cargo ship sailing from Germany to Egypt recently caught fire and the cause was immediately believed to have been caused by an electric vehicle.  It was carrying almost 3,000 vehicles, including 350 Mercedes-Benz and at least one crew member died. It was in the North Sea at the time near the northern part of the Netherlands and according to officials many of the crew were wounded suffering broken bones, breathing problems and taken to hospitals. The ship was said to be “burning out of control in the North Sea and rescue vessels were working to save it from sinking close to one of the world’s most important migratory bird habitats.”

Once again, it appears those EV are not saving us from “climate change” and instead are simply making the planet worse off when one views issues such as this along with the damage to extract all of the minerals going into creating those batteries. 

We should also suspect insurance companies who are the remaining members of the Mark Carney creation; “Net-Zero Insurance Alliance“, may be having second thoughts about the promise to decarbonize “their insurance and reinsurance underwriting portfolios”!

Blackouts on the Horizon for NYC

The New York Post recently posted an article titled:  “NYC may see blackouts sooner than thought — thanks to the state’s loony green agenda“ which seems to be similar to so many other articles popping up in many locations including Ontario, Quebec and elsewhere as the push to full electrification seems to be the objective of so many of our elected politicians.  Those articles including the NYP one indeed highlight the “loony green agenda” which has invaded the thought processes of those in positions of power.  Thankfully the organizations responsible for managing the grids such as the New York Independent System Operator are speaking out about those upcoming problems, but will the politicians who have aligned themselves with the COP 26 or COP 27 commitments recognize the stupidity of their efforts to decarbonize the planet and destroy our economic well being?

We can only hope they finally wake up and recognise the mess they are creating!

The Nemeth Report: Canada’s Energy Transition Challenges

Dr. Tammy Nemeth, an energy security analyst residing in Oxford, UK is a Canadian who grew up in Saskatchewan so has a great knowledge of Canada, our climate and the political establishment. Tammy kindly asked me to be her guest on one of her podcasts and it has now been posted.

During our 54-minute chat we cover a lot of ground in respect to the Just Transition, it’s affect on our lives and livelihood associated with the energy sector in not just Ontario and Canada but also the developed world.  We touch on the effects associated with the full electrification plan, energy sources (current and future) and the impacts being felt now and the future.

If you take the time to listen I hope you will appreciate the report and Tammy’s efforts to bring out her common sense attitude and the great questions she poses to me.

Find the podcast here:

 Canada’s Energy Transition Challenges — Season 2 Episode 14 — Conversation with Parker Gallant by The Nemeth Report (spotify.com)